Vacation Update
Question of the week: No question this week…why?
Answer: As mentioned in last week’s WR&MU, Wednesday was our 25th Anniversary, which we celebrated in Kauai. We are still here, having arrived on Sunday and leaving for home this Sunday, enjoying much of nothing but relaxing—and a few phone calls and emails mixed in, we are both self-employed after all!
For those concerned, which is sweet of them, about my/our working while on vacation, two factors. One, for those who have seen me, my pallor is somewhat to the very light sight so tropical sun must be taken in doses—no sitting pool side with no cover for hours and hours. Therefore, some sun relief time in our lodgings is needed so a bit of time checking in has no adverse impact on my relaxing. I will an endorsement for Coppertone 30 which through the week has done a great job maintaining my near translucence over most of my exposed skin. Two, if something is going on with a client or transaction and I am not checking in I relax a whole lot less wondering what is happening, formulating solutions and general concern than if I am aware and engaged, even if minimally.
We are back late Sunday night and booted-n-suited for the office Monday morning.
Have a question? Ask me!
Who says? Today the Labor Department released the jobs data for August which showed 130,000 net gain in employment across the country. Since this number is lower than expectations, and July’s job increase, some (many) pundits are saying the news supports the Fed cutting rates later this month. Not factored into this analysis are a few factors. In seven of the last ten years the August job forecast was higher than actual data by 43,000 jobs. August tends to be the lowest month for the job survey as many respondents are on vacation. An estimated 571,000 people entered the job market in August and 590,000 found work, an 18 month high in this data bracket. Finally, jobs are filled where there are available vacancies, wages rise when there is more demand for workers than workers available. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% for the month and are up 3.2% year-over-year, well above the inflation rate of 1.2% last reported.
But…Yes, but…I have had a few regular readers of the WR&MU argue that I seem to be an apologist of a weakening economy because I find contrary data in the reports that are not addressed by many (most) commentators, or if they are the information is buried in the story. My position has been and remains that the economic data shows an economy that is growing at the same measured pace for a decade, not big peaks and no big valleys. If a marathon runner averages nine minutes a mile the first half of the race and nine and a half minutes a mile the second half are they weakening or sustaining a pace that will last over a long distance? That is what has happened with our economy the past decade, the pace of growth has been extremely steady, and constant. I continue to maintain that the Fed should leave rates alone due to the strength in the labor markets and continued consumer spending which are more inflationary than not.
Rates for Friday September 6, 2019: Rates hold constant from last Friday. The speculation that the Fed will lower rates later this month has been priced into the markets some time ago and today’s data does not impact rates.
FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:
30 year conforming 3.375% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 3.625% Flat
Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.
Off to sit by the pool, perhaps go to the beach, maybe have a beverage or two…Aloha…
Have a great week,
Dennis
Past Weekly Rate & Market Updates can be found on my blog page at my website www.DennisCSmith.com/my-blog
