12-28-18: Happy New Year! Rates Drop Continues

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Question of the week:  Are you having a nice holiday?

 

Answer:  We are, and I hope your family is as well. It is nice having our oldest home and the family all together for a while.

 

A break this week from the Weekly Rate & Market Update, should have a regular missive next week.

 

Have a wonderful New Year!

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

Rates for Friday December 28, 2018: You may have noticed the markets have been a bit schizophrenic this week, continuing the ups and downs from last week but with much bigger swings. The volatility in the equity markets (stock markets) has created a flight to safety for investors, which means they are leaving the uncertainty of equities and purchasing fixed rate investments to lock in returns—i.e. bonds and mortgages. As a result rates continue to drop, the fourth Friday to Friday drop out of the past five weeks for conforming and the fifth Friday in a row for high-balance rates. The 30 year conforming rate is the same as it was on April 13th and down five-eighths of a percent (0.625%) from its high of the year in October. If you have an equity line with a large balance now may be a good time to start doing the math and looking to lock in that variable rate.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            4.25%      Down 0.125%

30 year high-balance conforming                   4.375%     Down 0.125%

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

 

 

 

 

A year and a half in age and one grade apart, we spent a lot of time together as we moved five times growing up through three states and a foreign country. A handful for our mom, and many neighbors as we were prone to create a bit of havoc, we stood by and behind each other and took what we deserved in terms of discipline. Happy birthday to my big brother Michael as he spends it on another road trip through the state—though this time in a car with his lovely (and tolerant) wife instead of on his beloved motorcycle. Safe travels on your trip and through 2019. Cheers!

 

Have a wonderful New Year’s celebration, and if you have a lot of fun please use Lyft or Uber (a tip I received a few years ago from my friend and millennial Jerry, rates jump very high for ride-shares on New Years. Before ordering a car go to a nearby hotel and see if you can work out a cash deal with a driver dropping someone off to take you to your destination; you save money and the driver makes more than if they were getting the ride through their car service. And you can probably get a car faster.)

 

Happy New Year and thank you for your support in 2018!

 

Dennis

 

Past Weekly Rate & Market Updates can be found on my blog page at my website www.DennisCSmith.com/my-blog

12-21-18: Why Me? A case for Dennis Smith as your preferred mortgage professional

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Question of the week:  Why me?

 

Answer:  As most of you head out for a long holiday weekend to be spent with family and friends, you will be having some conversations over eggnog or platters of hors d’oeuvres (picturing Clark Griswold and Cousin Eddie with the moose glasses). During those conversations, the topic of real estate and mortgages may come up. Cousin Eddie thinking of buying a new home, adding on to the current home, or worried about his equity line going up. Or perhaps sister Susie and brother in-law Lance finally see what others saw and are formally ending their marriage, she wonders what their options are regarding their home. Maybe the conversation is with you and your siblings over Mom and Dad’s home—your first Christmas without one of them and now the reality of dividing the assets which includes where you grew up, what options do you have? If/when such conversations occur it would be appreciated if you were to say, “I know a guy who can help, call Dennis…”

 

For thirty years I have helped families with many scenarios where a mortgage is able to solve problems. A family purchasing their first home, or their third. Siblings purchasing some investment property. Mom and Dad refinancing an equity line they used to put their kids through college. Sister buying out her brothers’ share in the family home from mom and dad’s estate.

 

Why me for these scenarios? Primarily because my staff, partners and I combined have more than two centuries experience in the mortgage industry—that is a lot of mortgages used to solve a lot of scenarios. We are adept at taking a problem and creating scenarios for our clients to consider for solutions. We are adept at communicating those solutions in plain English. We are adept at showing only the scenarios that we know will work and be able to close.

 

So, do we only do complicated or non-standard transactions? No, we thrive on “simple” or “normal” mortgage scenarios such as purchasing a new home or refinancing an existing mortgage. But, because of our experience we know that the “normal” transactions can quickly become complicated or possibly a bad situation for our client.

 

Properties that have unpermitted square footage, or not in condition that would be approved by underwriting. Condo projects with shaky budgets and financials. Job losses, maternity leave, unknown issues on credit reports, cloudy title, tax returns filed by someone else using your social security number, appraisals that come in under the needed value.

 

These are just a few of the countless surprises that can, and do, pop up during transactions. Numerous times per year we are called by agents as an issue has come up on their transaction where their client, or the buyer of their client’s home, is using a different lender and they do not know how to solve an issue; they call us because they know we can provide different possible scenarios so they can move forward.

 

I have always told my clients, you might be able to find another lender that will quote a lower rate; note “quote” because we only quote what we can close—this, we have discovered through the years, is not always the case with some of our competitors in the mortgage industry. Our rates are excellent, and our value is among the best in the industry. I use “value” because of what we provide in the way of service and experience to make our clients’ transactions as smooth as possible, with them knowing every step of the way what is happening, why it is happening and what will happen next. All at or below the same rate and price of almost all other lenders in our markets.

 

Our business is referral only. How have we been in business for so long counting on word of mouth for our business? Tremendous service, products and rates. Plus the ability to work out solutions for practically every scenario where a mortgage is needed.

 

“I didn’t know getting a mortgage could be so easy.” This is perhaps the most common comment we get from our clients, regardless of the difficulty of the transaction, it is easier than they think it will be due to our clear communication and honest answers from first contact through closing.

 

I thought long and hard before using this space to toot the horns of Stratis Financial and Dennis Smith; it is hard to speak well of oneself without feeling like a braggart or boastful. Every now and then however we do need to boast a bit about what we do and how we do it. I hope you read this as intended, to remind people about what we do and how we do it with the desire that our name is passed along to others who are in the market for some assistance with their mortgage needs.

 

In closing I want to thank the thousands of individuals and families that have told clients, families, friends, co-workers and neighbors, “hey, I know a guy who can help you, call Dennis…”

 

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

Pre-holiday week is not short on economic news. A data dump of economic news today before everyone heads out for the above-mentioned eggnog as reports were issued for Gross Domestic Product, personal income and spending and inflation. The third and final revision to 3rd quarter GDP was revised down to 3.4% growth from the earlier rate of 3.5%, mostly due to a revision in consumer spending in the quarter. The spending thus far in the 4th quarter has been very strong with November spending up 0.4% from October, and the October consumer spending was revised up from a 0.4% increase to 0.8%. In November consumers hit the credit cards as personal income was up 0.2% for the month after increasing 0.5% in October—that is back to back months where spending has outpaced incomes. With the increase spending and demand inflation bumped up a bit to 1.9%, below the Fed’s target rate of 2.0%. Overall the news is a bit mortgage rate unfriendly and in a vacuum would lead to rates increasing a bit.

 

But there is no vacuum in nature or economies. To paraphrase Jan Brady, “Fed, Fed, Fed.” The only questions investors had prior to the Fed announcement was whether the rate increase would be the expected 0.25%, or would there be a surprise increase of 0.5%; the other question was what, if anything, would the Fed say about 2019 rate increases? The Federal Reserve did what was expected and raised their discount rate 0.25%, which resulted in an increase in the prime rate to 5.5%. On the second question, the Fed announced that it anticipated raising rates twice in 2019. This was news as for the past year plus the Fed had been telling the public its intention was to increase rates three times in 2019. The news whipsawed rates as investors reacted first to the rate increases in the future, then reacted to the stock markets’ reactions to the news. As a result, both the bond markets (which determine mortgage rates) and stock markets had chart lines that mirrored Colossus or some other roller-coaster with lots of ups and downs.

 

 

Rates for Friday December 21, 2018: Rates drop for the third Friday in the past four for conforming and the fourth Friday in a row for high-balance; almost solely attributed to the corresponding decline in stocks as investors have sold stocks and purchased long-term fixed rate assets, such as mortgages. The risk is getting in the mindset that rates will continue to drop for some period. I say this due to what I have mentioned in prior WR&MU’s, the Fed is selling about one trillion dollars in assets accumulated post-recession to push rates lowers. If rates drop when the Fed is a buyer of fixed rate assets what is the reasonable expectation when the Fed becomes a seller of those same assets? Correct, rates will go higher. One reason the Fed has decided not to raise rates three times in 2019 is quite possibly because the knowledge that selling its assets will result in rate increases. In the meantime the 30 year conforming rate is at its lowest in four months.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            4.375%      Down 0.125%

30 year high-balance conforming                       4.50%      Down 0.125%

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

 

 

 

 

Very special wishes for a happy birthday to my wonderful wife Leslie! With our at home daughter we are going to dinner and then a movie (the new Spiderman) this evening and then on Sunday a celebratory brunch as our oldest daughter returns from her first semester at school in Boston. It is the first year that Leslie gets the present for her birthday, and we get the same present for Christmas, of a child returning from being away for several months—I can think of no present better!

 

From our family to yours a very happy Christmas holiday with your family and friends.

 

Dennis

 

Past Weekly Rate & Market Updates can be found on my blog page at my website www.DennisCSmith.com/my-blog

11-9-18 What kinds of loans do you and your company handle?

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Question of the week:  What kinds of loans do you and your company handle?

 

 Answer:  This is a common question I am asked when meeting people, be it in a casual social setting or with professionals in other industries.

 

The broad answer is: almost any mortgage on residential property for one to four units in the State of California.

 

More specifically Stratis Financial excels at working with our clients to fund the following types of mortgages:

 

Conventional:  By far the most mortgages funded every year for residential mortgages in the United States. Broadly referred to as “conventional,” these are mortgages that are underwritten and approved to the guidelines as set forth by Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac. Once mortgages approved under these guidelines are funded they are sold by the lender in bundles of tens of millions of dollars to either Fannie or Freddie. While very similar with their guidelines, each of these agencies have some slight differentiation that dictates a loan can only be approved under one of their guidelines or the other. For instance in many instances Freddie Mac may only require the most recent year of Federal income tax returns for income verification for a self-employed borrower, whereas the guideline for Fannie Mae is two years of tax returns.

 

Conventional mortgages have two different loan tiers, labeled conventional and high-balance, which have different loan amounts, pricing and some different guidelines for qualifying and approval. These are the loans I put in the WR&MU rate quotes below. The maximum loan for single family residences for 2018 is $453,100, the maximum loan limit for “high-cost areas,” aka high-balance loans, for 2018 is $679,650. It is important to note that while Los Angeles and Orange County are considered high-cost areas, other counties in Southern California are not and have varying maximum loan amounts; for instance the maximum loan amount for Fannie or Freddie in Riverside County is $453,100 and in San Diego $649,850 in 2018.

 

The loan limits are established by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and can be adjusted annually. New loan limits for 2019 have not yet been announced, usually the loan limits for the following year are published in late November—you can be sure I will have the new limit announcement in the WR&MU the Friday we are made aware if the limits are changed.

 

Conforming mortgages can be used for one to four unit properties for primary residence, second homes and investment properties, different guidelines will apply depending on property use. As well fixed and adjustable rate programs are available.

 

Jumbo: Also referred to as non-conforming. These loans vary greatly from lender to lender as far as underwriting guidelines, loan amounts and pricing. Many lenders will start their jumbo loan programs at $453,101—just over the conforming limit—and go to several million dollars. The higher your loan amount the lower the loan to value you will have to have. For instance a lender may fund a loan up to one million dollars with a maximum loan to value (LTV) of 80%, another lender may fund up to $1.5 million with a maximum LTV of 80%. With a low LTV, say 60%, some lenders may have maximum loans of two million dollars, others may go up to ten million, or higher.

 

Most lenders in our market do not retain their jumbo mortgages but sell them to investors after funding, it is the investors who create the guidelines and determine the loan limits. Because different lenders use different jumbo investors we are able to fit specific criteria for clients to the jumbo programs available through different lenders.

 

A rule of thumb for jumbo loans is that the underwriting guidelines are stricter, how much stricter depends on the investors. As an example, one program may require any income to show it has been paid on a monthly basis for six months or more, say for payments from a retirement account, whereas another lender may use the annual distribution from the account, or show that an automatic payment has been set up. Reserve requirements, property features, income calculations, and other quirky guidelines differ from lender to lender and from Fannie and Freddie that may help one borrower or hurt another.

 

Another rule of thumb is that jumbo loans are higher priced than conforming; however this is not always the case. Not infrequently we will find a jumbo program that has a lower rate than other lenders high-balance conforming rates, when this is the case we ensure that the clients meet the more restrictive guidelines of the jumbo program and if so we lock them in at the lower rate and fund the jumbo mortgage. It makes no difference to the borrower that they do not have a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loan, especially if they are able to save money on a lower interest rate or cost of the mortgage.

 

Jumbo mortgages can be used for one to four unit properties for primary residence, second homes and investment properties, depending on investor, different guidelines will apply depending on property use. As well fixed and adjustable rate programs are available.

 

FHA: The original 30 year fixed rate mortgage for homeowners in the United States. The Federal Housing Administration was created in 1934 as part of the National  Housing Act that established the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) as part of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal agencies, also referred to as his Alphabet Soup. The New Deal Agencies were created by Roosevelt as part of his plan to pull the nation out of the Great Depression and besides HUD and FHA included the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) and many other more specific purpose agencies such as the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and national agencies like the Public Works Administration (PWA).

 

Homeownership prior to the Depression was very low and most homeowners had short term mortgages held by banks. The terms of the mortgages were very much in favor of the lenders and as a result foreclosure was relatively easy and could occur quickly, often with only one missed payment. The Depression caused a significant percentage of homeowners to lose their homes and farms to foreclosure.

 

The purpose of FHA was to insure mortgages funded by banks and lenders to encourage and enable lending to potential homeowners. It created 30 year mortgages, which resulted in lower monthly mortgage payments and established guidelines that made foreclosure a more difficult process for lenders to enable homeowners to recover from a brief set-back and retain their homes.

 

FHA still does not fund or purchase mortgages, instead the agency insures mortgages against default provided the mortgages follow the underwriting guidelines established by the agency.

 

Guidelines for FHA mortgages are generally more lenient than for conforming or jumbo mortgage products, especially for down payment requirements, income to debt ratios for qualifying and use of co-borrowers and gifts for assisting in qualifying. Looser guidelines mean riskier loans, but because the mortgages are fully backed by the United States government lenders are willing to make these loans at rates very near, often below, conforming lending rates.

 

The insurance the mortgages are paid by the borrower in two manners. There is the upfront mortgage insurance premium that is added to the loan amount at closing, plus a monthly mortgage insurance payment that is paid for the life of the loan. This adds to the cost of the loan, which depending on the rate markets could cause it to be more expensive than a conforming mortgage, however due to the looser guidelines it is often the best opportunity for many families to purchase or refinance their home.

 

It is important to note that the loan limits for FHA mirror those of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

 

FHA mortgages can be used for one to four unit properties for primary residence, second homes and investment properties, depending on investor, different guidelines will apply depending on property use. As well fixed and adjustable rate programs are available.

 

VA: Congress passed the Servicemen’s Readjustment Act of 1944 and signed into law by Roosevelt. The law is more commonly known as the G.I. Bill and among the many benefits included in the Act was the establishment of the VA loan to enable active duty members of the military and qualified veterans to purchase homes with no down payment.

 

Like the FHA, the Veterans’ Administration does not fund mortgages but does insure them, which is why lenders will provide mortgages to those eligible with no down payment. The insurance, known as the funding fee, is added to the loan amount which would result in a loan above the value of the property, or if agreed upon the seller may pay the funding fee for the borrower. Due to the ability to finance the funding fee over the period of the loan a VA mortgage of the same amount and interest rate will have a lower monthly payment than a FHA mortgage.

 

There are similarities to FHA in guidelines for VA loans; however the biggest difference in the qualifying guidelines is that VA is not dependent on the debt-to-income ratio for loan approval. Residual income is the underlying guideline for VA loan qualifying. Instead of having a hard debt-to-income ratio of 50% of your gross income for total housing payment and debt obligations, the VA uses a minimum residual income amount for qualifying if necessary.

 

For instance in qualifying for a mortgage the applicant may have a debt-to-income of 55%, above most loans qualifying limit. However using residual income calculations the new housing payment including taxes and insurance, federal and state withholdings and payment for debt obligations, including but not limited to car and student loans, credit cards, alimony and/or child support are added up and subtracted from the applicant’s gross income. Depending on the amount of residual income the veteran can be approved. The amount of residual income required depends on the where the property is located and the number of family members; a single veteran purchasing in eastern Georgia will have a $441 residual income requirement whereas family of four in Southern California will have a $1003 requirement.

 

There are some criteria to be eligible for a VA loan, primarily the veteran must be honorably discharged from the service. There is a calculation for the maximum eligible loan amount based upon the entitlement available to the applicant from the VA. If a veteran has not used any of his or her entitlements the maximum loan amount, if qualified, could exceed one million dollars—there would be a down payment required, but significantly less than what would be required for FHA, conventional or jumbo loans for the same property.

 

VA loans are only available for the purchase or refinance of the veteran’s primary residence. In some instances a second property can be purchased using a VA mortgage, but it is a rare set of circumstances that would allow this.

 

VA loans can be used to purchase 2-4 unit properties as well as single family residences as long as the veteran will be occupying one of the units. Different guidelines may apply regarding loan amount calculations. As well fixed and adjustable rate programs are available.

 

Non-Qualified Mortgage: Also known as Non-QM, non-traditional, asset-based, or hard money, these loans practically disappeared following the passage of Dodd-Frank in 2010. The Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, commonly known as it Dodd-Frank after its sponsors Senator Christopher Dodd and Representative Barney Frank, was enacted following the 2008 housing and mortgage market melt downs.

 

One of the provisions of the law is that residential mortgages must meet certain guidelines to be considered a “qualified residential mortgage”. Among the qualifications are that the borrower must show evidence of income to support repaying of the mortgage; note not cash or assets, but evidence of income, the loans not be amortized for more than 30 years, do not have total points and fees in excess of 3% of the loan amount and cannot have interest only or negative amortization features.

 

These guidelines was in response primarily to the proliferation of no-income-verification mortgages that were funded by banks and lenders and either held in private portfolios or for the bulk of such mortgages purchased by Fannie or Freddie. The other factors such as negative amortization and interest only features in loans certainly contributed to the ease of credit that created the market collapses, but were secondary to the stated income mortgages as the primary cause.

 

If a lender funds mortgages that do not meet the guidelines of the qualified mortgage (QM) rule then the lender must retain at least 5% of the loans they sell into the secondary markets. This 5% rule creates a risk-retention factor for lenders in the Non-QM sector, or mandating they have some skin in the game.

 

Over the past few years we have seen an exponential growth in the number of Non-QM programs and lenders in the market offering loans using bank statements or other methods to determine ability to qualify for mortgages. Qualifying income is not the only reason these products are utilized for residential borrowers, others include issues with credit, subject property or chain of title and ownership history that do not meet the guidelines for conforming or jumbo products available. These loans are often part of a long term plan of obtaining funds for the purchase or refinance of a property with the intention to replace with a conventional or jumbo mortgage with more favorable rates or terms in the future.

 

Due to the considerably looser underwriting guidelines and the retention requirements for the loans these mortgage products have higher interest rates than conforming and jumbo mortgages.

 

Non-QM mortgages can be used for one to four unit properties for primary residence, second homes and investment properties, depending on investor, different guidelines will apply depending on property use. As well fixed and adjustable rate programs are available.

 

Stratis Financial has many other mortgage and home loan products available depending on the needs of property owners. If we do not offer a product, or I feel we are not competitive with a product, I routinely refer out to other lenders who have those products and meet the service levels we require for our clients.

 

What is your mortgage need? If you are uncertain please give me a call to discuss your needs and we can determine the options available for you.

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

A few economic bits of news this week that investors key off of when making decisions which could impact mortgage rates. Consumers charged less in September than in August but borrowed more. For the fifth month out of the last eight, credit card use declined, which can be of some concern if the reduced credit card purchases result in lower consumer spending—which accounts for 65-70% of our nation’s economic activity. Total consumer debt continues to grow, at a slower rate than prior months but still growing, however much of the borrowing is for long term purchases such as vehicles and homes. The other somewhat significant piece of news was the release of the Producer Price Index for October.  If investors digested their news like many individuals do, i.e. just read the headlines without reading the details, they would have sold, sold and sold mortgages and bonds today causing interest rates to spike. The headline was that wholesale prices jumped in October for the highest increase in the PPI since 2012, climbing 0.6% for the month. Reading into the data we see that the increase was primarily due to higher gas prices. When the “core” rate of wholesale inflation is examined, with gas and food stripped out of the index, the rate of increase drops to 0.2% for the month, which is what investors expected.  Year over year the wholesale inflation rate is 2.9%, up 2.6% from September.

 

The Federal Reserve met this week. As expected there was no change in interest rates, what most followers of the Fed were interest in was the statement following the meeting regarding policy and future expectations. The statement on the economy was pretty much the same as it has been, mentioning the positive job growth and economic growth and that the Fed expects to gradually increase the federal funds rate in the future. Absent some major change in the economy from its current path, or a major non-economic event, we can expect the Fed to increase rates by one-quarter of one percent (0.25%) in December and then three times in 2019.

 

Rates for Friday November 9, 2018: Mortgage rates bounced around a bit this week but we finish with the conforming rate being flat from last Friday and the high-balance rate declining one-eighth (0.125%). Rates have been within a tight range of one-eighth of a percent for the past six weeks, any news positive or negative could prompt a break out of to higher or lower rates. In other words we continue to have a volatile somewhat unstable rate market.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            4.75%       Flat

30 year high-balance conforming                   5.00%      Up 0.125%

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

 

 

Another milestone in the Smith household as our youngest passed her driver’s test and drove herself to school on Tuesday instead of taking the bus. It also has resulted in the big car shuffle as she took my 2006 Pilot, I am now in the 2010 Odyssey and Leslie moves into what was our oldest daughter’s 2001 Infinity until we decide it is time to get her a more recently manufactured set of wheels. We’re not real big on buying new cars in our family on a very frequent basis.

 

Have a great week, and drive carefully—especially around Bixby Knolls!

 

Dennis

 

Past Weekly Rate & Market Updates can be found on my blog page at my website www.DennisCSmith.com

11-7-18 Should I refinance and payoff my HELOC?

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Question of the week:  Should I refinance and payoff my HELOC?

 

 Answer:  My most frequent response to questions of the week definitely applies to this question: It depends.

 

There are several factors to consider when deciding if now is the time for you to refinance and fix the rate on you Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC).

 

Before we get into various factors to discuss, let’s take a quick look at why the question is being asked. Your HELOC has three components that determine your current payment, the balance, the prime rate and the amount added to the prime rate (called the margin) that results in the rate you are being charged.

 

Of the three factors the only one you somewhat control is the balance; you can impact your payment by paying down the balance on the HELOC. Obviously, the more you pay towards the balance the lower your payment will be on a monthly basis. Most HELOCs have two periods of repayment. The initial payment period usually has a minimum payment requirement that is the interest accrued on the loan since the last payment. The next stage of payments is usually a fully amortized period for the remaining life of the loan; if you may have a HELOC that is a twenty year loan, in this case typically the first ten years of the loan have an interest only payment, at the start of the eleventh year the loan will be fully amortized based on the remain ten years of the loan.

 

Example: You have a $150,000 balance on your HELOC that you obtained in December 2008 and the current rate is the prime rate, currently 5.25% plus one-half of one percent (0.500%) for a payment rate of 5.75%. Your minimum payment for November is the interest on the balance, $718.75 (balance times rate divided by twelve months). Next month you begin your eleventh year and the loan payment is now fully amortized using the rate that month plus the remaining term of 120 months. The rate for the December payment is the same as November, since the prime rate has not moved, at 5.75%, since you paid the interest only payment in November balance is still $150,000 but now instead of interest only the payment is amortized to include principal reduction and the payment will be $1646.54. Since the Federal Reserve is expected to increase its funds rate by 0.25% in December that means the prime rate will increase by 0.25% as well so the January payment will be calculated at 6.00%** and your payment will be $1655.00 for the month.  **Since the Fed will increase rates into the month the rate will only be for part of the month with the earlier part of the month being calculated at the 5.75% rate, but for demonstration purposes easier to show as one complete month.

 

The lower your balance when you enter the fully amortized payment portion of the repayment of your HELOC the lower your required payment will be.

 

If you have a HELOC for three years or more you have seen your rate increase by two percent since 2015 and one percent since last November. The chances are you will see at least another one percent increase in the next year, with a 0.25% in December when the Fed is expected to increase rates again.  (To see why the Fed increasing rates impacts your HELOC rate here is link to WR&MU from a few weeks ago addressing the issue.)

 

With rates having climbed one percent or more in the past twelve months the decision to refinance is a lot harder than it was one year ago, or even two to three months ago and moving forward the decision might not get easier.

 

The first consideration is if you are risk averse or not. The risk averse individual would be more inclined to want to refinance to avoid future increases in rates on their HELOC as well as for long term fixed rate mortgages that would be used to refinance. The person more comfortable with risk might be less inclined to refinance. Why?

 

The person who is willing to accept more risk may take the stance that their underlying primary mortgage has an interest rate that is lower than the rate available to refinance their primary loan plus their HELOC and will accept the higher rates on their HELOC in the future and if need be make interest only payments with the hope that rates decline in the future so refinancing makes more sense, or to enable easier paying down of the mortgage.

 

The risk averse person does not want the uncertainty of not knowing how high their rate and payment will go on their HELOC and is more willing to trade off what would probably be a higher payment in the short term for what may be a lower payment in the long run. The risk averse person knows if rates do drop in the future they can likely refinance and lower their payment.

 

What are the factors in terms of payment that need to be considered? First and foremost is the payment differential between doing nothing and refinancing. There are four primary factors that will determine the payment at which the interest rate for your refinance will be calculated: balances, credit score, loan-to-value and whether the transaction would be considered cashout or not.

 

The first three factors are pretty elementary; the combined balances of your existing primary mortgage and your HELOC will determine the refinance loan amount, your credit score is determined when we pull a credit report, the loan-to-value is determined by the estimated value of your home and the refinance loan balance.

 

The fourth factor, whether the refinance transaction is considered a cashout transaction or a rate and term transaction. For conventional mortgages unless the HELOC can be proven to be part of the purchase price of the property the transaction is considered to be a cashout transaction, if your HELOC was used to purchase your property the transaction is considered to be a rate and term refinance, and will have lower costs than the cashout. If the loan is a jumbo loan we have several programs that will consider the refinance a rate and term transaction is you can prove you have not accessed any funds from the HELOC in the past twelve months.

 

Once we know the four factors we go to our rate sheets and determine the rate, and also your what your new payment would be after refinancing. With this information you can determine if you want to refinance and payoff your HELOC into a fixed rate mortgage, or continue as you are with your current primary mortgage and HELOC.

 

Since the minimum payment for most HELOCs is interest only even if you were able to refinance near what your current mortgage rate is the chances are you will see some increase in total payment as you move from interest only to paying down principal on your HELOC. With rates higher and most homeowners with rates closer to 4.00% than today’s rates the chances are that your payment will likely increase a few hundred dollars per month, or more, when refinancing to pay off your HELOC. And this is the basis for the hard decision, is the extra monthly payment worth it to remove future risk based on rising interest rates, or is the cost too much for you to want to remove the risk?

 

This is a question I am very willing to help you answer by running the numbers and options for you and your particular situation. For several years we have been encouraging homeowners with HELOCs to refinance to fix their rate and payment on their mortgage debt, while I still feel it is a good idea for most homeowners, it may not be your choice, however I encourage you to run the numbers and know the options. If your HELOC is converting from an interest only payment to fully amortized in the next few years you may want to give refinancing even more consideration due to the sharp increase in your monthly payment when that occurs.

 

If you, or someone you know, has a Home Equity Line of Credit please contact me to go through your information so you have the information needed for making a decision on whether to refinance.

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

Better economy, higher rates. That correlation is something long time readers of the WR&MU have learned over the years. This week we have positive economic news released every day, some data a lot more positive than others. Here are the data releases that have the greatest impact on rates.

 

Households made more and spent more in September. Income growth for the month was slower than August but still positive at 0.2% matching the core inflation rate for the month. Holding back income growth was a slow down for self-employed businesses. Savings rates dropped as consumer spending increased in September by 0.4%, the seventh month in a row with spending increasing by 0.4% or more. The disparity in spending and income growth may have been impacted by Hurricane Florence. The very good news for the economy inside the data is that there was a sharp increase in the purchase of new cars and recreational goods—the sort of spending that occurs when the economy is strong and consumers are optimistic. The news is not good for interest rates, though tempered a bit as the year over year inflation index of 2.0% is in line with the Federal Reserve’s target.

 

My oldest was one the last time the American consumer was has confident as s/he was in September, as the consumer confidence rose to its highest level since 2000. The cutoff date for the survey was mid-October, before the stock market slump so the expectation is that the index will drop in November. This news also puts upward pressure on interest rates.

 

Continuing the short term historic gains was the Employment Cost Index which showed wage gains in the private sector reached their highest level in ten years in the third quarter, with wages, salaries and benefits increasing 0.8% for the period. The gains reflect the lowest unemployment rate since 1969. A very big concern for economists is wage inflation, higher prices driven not by demand but by the cost of production of goods and services being driven higher by employment costs. The ECI report puts that concern very much in the center of the inflation and rate conversation. While this news is good for workers it is bad for those wanting lower interest rates.

 

Today’s data just piles on. The jobs report was released by the Labor Department today showing the labor situation in September. The news shows a very strong labor market, stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 250,000 in September, well above the forecast of 208,000 jobs. Included in the report was year over year growth in wages of 3.1%, the highest gain in one year since 2009 when the recession ended, the average hourly pay is now $27.30. This report fully supports future rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and continued upward pressure on mortgage and other long term rates.

 

Rates for Friday November 2, 2018: Despite the quantity and quality of positive economic news conforming rates hold on from last Friday, high-balance loans ($453,101 to $679,650) increased from last week back to seven year high first reached in early October. The only reason I can see for rates to undergo a migration down would be a catastrophic event causing investors to flee to the safety of long term fixed rate returns available in U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgages.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                                4.75%       Flat

30 year high-balance conforming                       5.125%     Up 0.125%

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

 

 

 

As many of you know I love baseball. During the season most afternoons I have the Phillies radio broadcast, or some other game back east playing on my computer and on weekends I listen to games from Philly or around the country while driving around or doing chores. Last Friday night’s game between the Dodgers and Red Sox that went 18 innings was pure heaven for me and I was thrilled the way it ended, not necessarily because the Dodgers won but that it was won on a great home run and not an error. Every inning was thrilling and had fans on the edge of their seats. While mildly upset the Red Sox won another championship and the Dodgers drought is now thirty seasons, I admire the Sox for the way they played this season and through the playoffs; the best team hoisted the trophy to end the season.

 

Now we wait until the end of February when Spring Training starts!

 

Have a great week,

Dennis

 

Past Weekly Rate & Market Updates can be found on my blog page at my website www.DennisCSmith.com

10-26-18 Why can’t you use my bonus income to qualify me for my new home?

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Question of the week:  Why can’t you use my bonus income to qualify me for my new home?

 

 Answer:  Income must be of a constant and continuing nature.

 

What constitutes “constant and continuing?” Generally, at least a two year history of receiving the income fulfills the requirement. There are some exceptions which I will cover below, but the question of the week specifically addresses bonus income, and much of this will apply to overtime and commission income as well.

 

Bonus income typically fluctuates from year to year depending on the matrix upon which the bonus is based. Because of the fluctuation there must be a guideline for the lender to consider the income for qualification purposes for your mortgage application. The industry standard is that if you have received a certain type of income for two years are more then we have reached the threshold of constancy. To reach the continuing nature policy we generally need a statement from your employer that the bonus will in all probability continue; this guideline is usually met with a letter from the employer or with a Verification of Employment (VOE) that we send your employer to complete. The VOE has sections for your employer to complete stating the length of employment, income for each of the past two years plus year to date broken down into base, bonus, overtime and commission. As well there is a place to indicate whether the continued payment of bonus, overtime and commission is likely to continue in the future.

 

Whether your bonus is paid annually, quarterly, monthly or per pay period does not matter for qualifying, we will convert the amount received into a monthly amount based on the amount received for the past two years, and if applicable year to date. The rule of thumb for bonus income, as well as overtime and commissions, is to use at least a two year average, unless the most recent year is lower than the prior year in which case the lower amount is taken.

 

Example: You have been with your company for five years and have received bonuses every quarter for the past three years and the bonus is paid on the first paycheck after the end of the quarter. In 2016 your bonuses totaled $12,000, in 2017 $12,600 and on your October 15th pay period your total bonuses year to date including September totaled $9700. The total amount received in bonuses is $34,300 over the past 33 months (two full years plus nine months in 2018), so we divide the total amount received by the time period over which it was received and get $1039.39, this is the amount of bonus income we will use for your qualifying for your mortgage—provided your employer verifies that you are likely to continue to receive bonuses in the future.

 

Example 2: Same employment scenario as above, however in 2016 you received $12,000 bonus, in 2017 you received $10,000 bonus and through September you have received $9000 in bonus income as reflected on your recent paycheck. It is evident you received $1000 per month in 2016 and so far in 2018. However, in 2017 your bonus was $833.33 per month—this is the bonus income that most lenders will use for income qualifying as it follows the standard guidelines from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Even with a letter from your employer regarding 4th quarter bonus the lender will take the worst case scenario when calculating income.

 

All this covers how we do calculate and count your bonus income, back to our question, why is your bonus income not allowed? Reading through the above it is likely because of any or all of the following:

 

  • You have not received your bonus for at least two years
  • Your bonus has been inconsistent, i.e. you received bonus income in 2016 but not 2017
  • Your employer will acknowledge that your bonus is likely to continue, which we saw not infrequently during the recession with employers very hesitant to put in writing bonuses are guaranteed or likely to continue creating a legal document an employee may use against the employer should bonuses be canceled.

 

Any non-wage employment income is generally treated in a similar manner, most prevalent being overtime, commission and self-employment income.

 

As mentioned above there are some exceptions to the two year income rule:

 

New job—If you are starting a new job, depending on the circumstances, we can generally count your income with a short, or perhaps no, history of employment at the new job. Typically, showing at least thirty days of income is needed. If you are transferring from working for Dennis Sprockets to Smith Widgets and in somewhat the same type of work, we can use your new income—but not overtime or bonus unless expressly addressed and quantified in an employment contract and if you received similar amounts in your prior job. New professionals can also have “young” income used for qualifying with proof of education in the field and an employment contract. If transferring geographically and a new job with a new company we can usually use your new employment income before you start on your job with an employment contract and separate letter from a senior executive at the company.

 

Spousal support—If you have a divorce decree or separation agreement that is recorded that includes your receiving alimony or child support we can use that income once you can prove you have received six monthly payments in a timely fashion. Note the income must be received as one payment every six months and not six months’ worth of payments upfront. As well the agreement must indicate the income will be received for at least three years after the date of your mortgage application; for instance, if you are receiving $800 per month for each of your two children until they are 18 and your son is 16 then we will only accept $800 for qualifying for your youngest child.

 

Retirement income—If you receive a pension or social security income you do not need to show a two-year history. Provide your award letter stating the amount of income you are to receive and we will use the current income for social security; for a pension, we must show that the pension income will continue for at least three years.

 

Asset accounts—Most individuals and couples have their financial assets in a retirement account and/or taxable investment and bank accounts. Depending on several factors these accounts could be used for qualifying income. Retirement accounts can be used for income if you are taking regular withdrawals from the account. Depending on your age and the type of retirement account you may be having to take mandatory distributions on an annual basis, this can be used for income. Or if you are taking regular distributions we can use those amounts as income as well. If you have funds in non-retirement accounts there are some cases where we can perform a calculation called “asset depletion” so we can achieve qualifying income.

 

Rent—If you are purchasing a new home and renting out your existing home there are guidelines we can follow to use the rental income from your current residence as qualifying income to offset the mortgage, tax and insurance payments.

 

Bonuses, commissions, retirement, wages, there are many different sources of income; whether yours is eligible for use as qualifying income can depend on different factors. If you, or someone you know, if looking to purchase or refinance property please contact me to ensure you are fully qualified for the transaction you want to make.

 

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

Don’t bury the lead. A couple of big pieces of economic news, since weekly update is primarily about mortgages and real estate we will start with the major news on home sales. This week the California Association of Realtors released its housing report for September. Based on the data I am of the opinion the real estate markets have become a buyer’s market. Los Angeles County saw the median home price increase 4.5% from August and 4.7% from 2017 to a value of $634,680. While the median price increased there was a dramatic drop in total sales. Sales volume for the month was down 18.3% from the prior month and 22% from last year. Neighboring Orange County saw both the median price and total sales volume drop in September. The county median price of $825,000 was down 1.6% for the month and 3.3% for the year, total volume was down 20.3% from August and 21.8% from September 2017. The data that supports my contention of our regional market being a buyer’s market is the increase in the number of active listings on the market and the time a home is on the market before it is sold and enters escrow. Basic premise, more supply leads to lower prices. Supply is growing and demand is not due to several factors, primarily higher interest rates.

 

Impacts sales and refinances. The softening market not only impacts sellers as they see values slowly erode, but also can have an impact on homeowners looking to refinance to lower payments, consolidate equity lines or obtain equity for various reasons. How? With a softer market there is more downward pressure on appraisals and therefore values needed for refinancing, or the rate and cost of the refinance due to potentially higher loan to value based on potentially lower appraised values.

 

The national economy is not following housing. This morning the initial estimate for the Gross Domestic Product was released and it showed growth in the quarter of 3.5%, slower than the 4.2% GDP growth in the second quarter. The expectation is that 2018 will end with total economic growth of 3% or greater, the first year with such growth since 2005. The report was, as you can expect, sprinkled with good news most notably the decline in inflation from 2% in the second quarter to 1.6% in the third quarter. That is good for consumers, but is it good for the economy? With some weakness in business spending and investment, slowing inflation and the equity markets dropping in recent weeks the signals are there for economic growth slowing, or reversing in 2019. It is quite possible, probable?, that a mild recession will begin in the third or fourth quarter of 2019. Overall the GDP news was market neutral as the growth figures met expectations.

 

Rates for Friday October 26, 2018: With stocks falling this week investors have been moving their funds to bonds and mortgages resulting in rates falling from last Friday. We remain in a volatile market and caution is strongly advised when thinking about floating your rate.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            4.75%     Down 0.125%

30 year high-balance conforming                       5.00%     Down 0.125%

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

 

 

 

 

Few things are better than a short trip that feels like a very long trip. That was the experience Leslie, our daughter and I had last week when we flew out to Boston to see our college freshman. Leslie and I walked about 13 miles on Saturday, mostly up the Charles River while the internationally famous Head of the Charles rowing regatta was going on, watched a performance by the marching band, where ironically our daughter is the tallest in the flute section as she was in high school, then we all enjoyed a fantastic and leisurely lunch/dinner at an Italian restaurant, topped off with the ubiquitous visit to Mike’s for some pastries. Another long walk to LL Bean to get our girl squared away with duck boots for the coming winter and it was back to our hotel for a few hours of catching up and just being together. A packed day, with plenty of needed hugs, mostly for me, and just seeing how happy she is with her friends, college and new city and mom and dad have come home at ease.

 

Now we are looking forward to our next time seeing her when she is home for four weeks at Christmas!

 

Have a Happy Halloween and don’t get too spooked by the gremlins and goblins showing up on your doorstep…I’ve noticed they leave you alone if you bribe them with some sugary treats!

 

Have a great week,

 

Dennis

 

Past Weekly Rate & Market Updates can be found on my blog page at my website www.DennisCSmith.com

10-19-18 Fed Scares Market–Rates Up

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Question of the week:  No question this week as travelling to Boston to see our daughter.

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

The October 5th Weekly Rate & Market Update question of the week was “How does the Federal Reserve impact mortgage rates?” In the answer I discussed how comments made by members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) as recorded in their minutes have a tremendous impact on mortgage rates as investors read the comments and then react based on what they think the Fed will do in the future, encourage higher rates, lower rates, make no moves? This commentary by me two weeks ago was proved on Wednesday when the minutes from the September meeting of the FOMC were released.

 

Several members of the committee expressed that rates would need to continue to rise until they were restrictive on the economy and able to slow growing inflation pressure. There were no quantitative dates as to how long rates should rise, nor how much. There did appear to be consensus that the Fed would raise its funds rate again in December, expectations are for another one-quarter of one percent (0.25%). Gleamed from the minutes was that instead of the previously expected one more rate hike in 2019 it seems the FOMC is looking at three more rate hikes next year.

 

Reading the minutes regarding concerns about inflation, tighter labor markets driving up costs as well and need to make sure economy does not get too hot to push inflation too far above the Fed’s target rate of 2% annual inflation, investors began selling off in the bond markets, for reasons mentioned in the October 5th WR&MU—they do not want to get caught with an investment that will be dropping in price, the Fed minutes indicated higher rates, therefore lower prices on their bond investments.

 

The most basic rule of economics is the greater the demand the greater the cost, the greater the supply the lower the cost. When more people are selling a product or service than there are willing buyers the price of that product or service drops. In the bond, and mortgage, markets when the price drops rates rise. With the large sell off in the rate markets on Wednesday rates rose.

 

The market reacted instantly to the Fed, just as expected and discussed in the WR&MU two weeks ago. The reaction was to essentially price in three rate hikes for the Fed, one in December and two by June 2019.

 

Rates for Friday October 19, 2018: With the sell-off in bond and mortgage markets on Wednesday it is no surprise that rates are a bit higher this week after dipping last week. Investors are looking for any reason to support their feeling the Fed has at least three-quarters of a percent (0.75%) in rate hikes coming in the next eight months. Unless the economic data shows a slow-down in the economy or inflation breaking below 2% and lingering, there is little expectation for lower mortgage rates in the future based on the economy.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            4.875%    Up 0.125%

30 year high-balance conforming                      5.125%     Up 0.125%

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

 

 

 

Leslie and I are visiting our oldest this weekend. She is a freshman at Boston University and it will be good to see her and her digs in a dorm tower high above Commonwealth Avenue. When she and I were texting last week I said, “you need a hug from Mom.” “Yeah.”

 

I then said, “I need one from you.” “I know.” I am a hugger, thankfully I have two daughters who are probably a bit more receptive than if I had two teenage boys, a bit.

 

Have a great week,

 

Dennis

 

You can find past Weekly Rate & Market Updates on my website at www.DennisCSmith.com/My-Blog

ORIGINAL POST 12-22-17: Should I pay my 2nd Half property taxes now?

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Question of the week:  Should I pay my second half property taxes due in April now?

 

Answer:  This great question came to me from my brother in-law (who by the way makes the perfect Old Fashioned with home grown blood oranges) who was inquiring about paying his second half taxes to Orange County before the end of 2017 due to the new federal tax regulations that go into effect in 2018.

 

I consulted with CPA’s extraordinaire, Lew Finklestein and Paul Scholz, for input on whether it makes sense given the new tax regulations for California property owners to pay their entire taxes due by the end of 2017 instead of waiting.

 

Yes, no, maybe. You know, the standard answer to most Questions of the Week.

 

I will preface this response with this very strong recommendation: before taking action on taxes always consult your professional tax preparer.

 

A quick look at why this question is important. The tax bill passed by Congress and signed into law today by President Trump has as one of its provisions a limit on deductions on your tax filing of $10,000 for State and Local Taxes (SALT). In California, and other states, where residents pay high SALT this regulation will reduce the deductions taken in the past when all such taxes were deductible on many tax returns (see next paragraph).

 

The primary consideration as to pre-paying the second tax installment is whether or not you will likely end up in the Alternative Minimum Tax zone for 2017 when preparing your federal taxes next year. If you it appears likely that you will be subject to AMT you may not have any deduction for the property taxes paid in 2017. Consulting with your tax preparer s/he may give you a good indication of whether you may be subject to AMT and advice on the property tax payment.

 

If you are not subject to AMT in 2017 then you should very much consider making that second half tax installment, especially if your state income and property taxes exceed $10,000. With the current policy of being able to deduct all SALT payments (depending on AMT) you will enjoy full deductibility of the second half taxes in 2017 whereas in 2018 you may not.

 

Again, before making such a decision and making the payment consult your tax preparation professional. I am not a tax preparer or CPA and the information above is for you to consider and prompt you to consult with a tax professional.

 

Thanks Dave for a great question.

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

 

Data doesn’t take a holiday. While many businesses slow down a bit this time of year, economic data never slows down—the economy might but the data reporting the slowdown is constant. Because of this we have a couple of very important pieces of data that tell us how the economy is doing. Yesterday we had the third and final estimate for the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product which showed a solid 3.2% growth for the quarter—the second quarter in a row with over 3% growth. Consumer spending is generally considered to be 60 to 70% of our economy, and it rose only 2.2% in the 3rd Quarter. The 3.2% growth in the quarter is most strongly attributed to very strong growth in non-residential fixed investment (companies, mainly, investing in real estate, capital assets like tools and machinery), which portends well for future job growth. Strong GDP growth is generally bad for mortgage rates, but the market had anticipated the data and there was little reaction.

 

Personal income and spending news today for November was somewhat positive. While personal income was up a modest 0.3% for the month, tamped down by a reduction in government transfers for the month to offset a very good increase of 0.4% for salaries and wages. The increase in income transferred to spending as consumer spending was up 0.6% for the month. With spending up more than incomes we saw a strong 0.3%  slow down in the personal savings rate, which came in at 2.9%–the lowest in a decade. We continue to get disappointing news on inflation, the “core” rate (prices less food and energy) used by most to gauge inflation was up only 0.1% for the month and 1.5% from November 1.5%, well below the target rate for the Federal Reserve when making monetary policy. The data is mixed in regards to impact on rates as the low inflation numbers should support lower rates, higher consumer spending and income should lead to higher rates.

 

 

Rates for Friday December 20, 2017: We saw a spike in rates after the passing of the tax reform earlier in the week and today we barely have made it back to pre-vote rates, mainly thanks to the long holiday weekend and investors parking their funds in the safety of bonds and mortgages. As result Friday to Friday no change in rates.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                                3.75%           Flat

30 year high-balance conforming                       3.875%        Flat

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

Yesterday we celebrated the lovely Leslie’s birthday at one of her, and our daughters’, favorite places: Disneyland. What a great way to get in the Christmas spirit. Decorated beautifully, the park was filled with visitors wearing their Santa hats, holiday Mickey ears, and Christmas sweaters. As usual there were little kids with big smiles and bright eyes. It was a bit chilly but the occasion of celebrating Leslie’s big day and the season kept us a bit warm.

 

Merry Christmas and full stockings to all!

 

Have a great week,

 

Dennis

 

 

 

6-29-18: Why have I received a lot of solicitations for mortgages recently?

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Question of the week:  Why have I received a lot of solicitations for mortgages recently?

 

Answer: Because the credit companies sell your information to credit companies.

 

Data mining and selling has been in the news a lot in the past year, mostly centered on Facebook and other social media companies. But selling data is not new. It is a huge, and often sole, revenue source for many companies that do business on the internet. The major credit agencies are no different and have contracts with credit providers for many types of credit, mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, student loans, to provide the credit information for consumers who have credit reports run by companies within their industry. If you apply for a credit card from a department store you can expect to get credit card offers in the mail. If you apply for an auto loan you can expect to get offers for auto loans.

 

If you apply for a mortgage…here is what happens in our case.

 

When we run credit reports we use a company, Funding Suite, that provides us a detailed report with data from the three major agencies, Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. When these companies see that there was an inquiry on your account from a mortgage company processing an application for a residential mortgage that triggers their algorithms. Sifting through the data on location, balances, payments and most importantly your credit score, the agency sends you information to mortgage companies that have paid them for data that meets certain parameters.

 

The mortgage company purchasing the data processes the information and sends contact information to their marketing department and contact is initiated.

 

We have learned a loophole that works some, not all but some, of the time by masking your application on the initial inquiry as for a non-residential mortgage, but that dodge is being figured out by the programmers and data is still being sold.

 

There is good news. You can stop the solicitations by opting out of receiving offers from credit providers. Click on this link. At this site, OptOutPrescreen.com, you can choose to opt out of receiving offers for five years, or permanently, or if you want to receive offers for credit cards, auto loans, etc you can choose to opt-in to receive offers. As the site shows, there are some advantages to receiving offers that you may want to consider before opting out of all offers.

 

When you receive any type of unsolicited credit offer please keep in mind the primary purpose of the solicitation is to get you to reply, then it is a numbers game for the credit company to convert a certain percentage of responses into applications and then a percentage of those into new accounts. Because of this the initial marketing message is *certain conditions apply; meaning the rate/terms on the offer are usually not what will be offered.

 

Next week we will discuss when you should have a credit report pulled when exploring the purchase of a new home.

 

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

 

There is no shortage of news that impacts mortgage rates. Consumer spending is approximately 60-70% of our economy, so data on consumer confidence impacts interest rates. In May the Consumer Confidence Index dipped slightly, mostly on the expectations component of the index (how consumers expect their future economic well-being to be), likely due to concern over how the tariff impositions around the globe in reaction to President Trump’s initiate new tariffs for products imported to the United States, most notably steel. The dip was very small so no impact on mortgage rates, but a warning that future confidence could slip further which would be positive for rates.

 

The third and final revision to 1st Quarter GDP revised economic growth from January through March was down from 2.2% to 2.0%. This news on its own would be positive for rates, however with the revision to economic growth was a revision to price data, i.e. inflation. The core price index (prices less food and energy) showed an increase from 1.9% to 2.2%. With prices increasing more than 2% the expectation is for rates to increase as well.

 

This morning we had what I consider the most important economic data release for the week: Personal Income and Spending. As mentioned above consumer behavior is by far the most important factor in our national economy, ergo what consumers earn and spend is vital information for investors and planners. In May wages increased 0.4%, a strong increase that was in line with expectations. With the increase in earnings it is no surprise that spending increased as well, which it did with consumers spending 0.2% more in May than in April. The increase in spending was modest, especially in light of the earning increase. With earnings growth outpacing spending growth it is follows that personal spending should increase and it did rise 0.2% to a rate of 3.2%. Are consumers spending for future large purchases or for future rainy day?

 

The number in the income and spending data that is very rate related was the price index in the report, showing core prices are up 2.0% in May, right at the Federal Reserve’s price target. It is a major moment for the Fed as it has been chasing 2% inflation for a decade and now it appears it has been reached. If this inflation rate holds it means the Fed does not need to worry about stimulating the economy but instead turns to focus on inflation and keeping it in check. This means higher interest rates.

 

Rates for Friday June 29, 2018: While economics and political science are two different fields they are intimately connected. Does government policy shape economic activity or does economic activity shape policy? The answer is yes. Each influences the other in the short, medium and long term. We are seeing this in our current markets as the economic data should lead to higher interest rates for consumers, but public policy has led to rates experiencing a slight dip in the past month and prevented rates from increasing. So despite positive economic news that should put upward pressure on rates, despite billions of dollars of U.S. Treasury debt on the market plus billions more being sold by the Fed from its Treasury and mortgage holdings we have seen rates behaving contrary to what fundamental economic principles dictate. Investors concerned with global economic slowing have been selling stocks and purchasing long term fixed rate investments, i.e. bonds and mortgages, which has countered current economic data. In this environment there is little stability for the future of rates and the advise remains to lock when you can. If public policy on tariffs changes rates will increase suddenly, and as we have seen in the past year and a half policy can change quickly and unexpectedly.

 

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            4.375%            Flat

30 year high-balance conforming                      4.625%             Flat

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

 

Throughout our nation’s history there have been deep disagreements on policy, which means solutions to problems. The arguments between factions when the Declaration of Independence was being written and voted upon by the Second Continental Congress were very personal and filled with rhetoric—these men were debating if they should vote to be considered traitors. After the Revolution there were intense debates, very nasty attacks via anonymous writings in pamphlets and papers centered on the Constitution and how, or whether, the states would come together with a federal government. Throughout our history there have been issues that have created deep philosophical and ideological differences, that these disagreements continue today should not be a surprise to anyone, and in fact are somewhat healthy for our Republic.

 

Next week is Independence Day and as I do every year I encourage everyone to read the Declaration of Independence. Most Americans know, or should know, the beginning of the document, “When in the course of human events…” and the most famous line, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among those are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” The latter is, in my opinion, perhaps the most important sentences every put forward for a vote by a governing body for it is the foundation of a nation and its laws.

 

Much less known, but very important is the final sentence in the Declaration, for it cemented the commitment of those in the Congress to not only the Declaration, but also each other. It is, again in my opinion, the same sentiments under which millions of Americans have volunteered to serve in our armed services to enable our nation to exist and continue to evolve with ever growing liberty and freedom.

 

Celebrate our nation’s founding next week, as well celebrate the differences that have and will continue to have that make our nation the greatest in human history.

 

Have a great week,

 

Dennis

1-5-18: With the new tax laws should I keep my Home Equity Line of Credit

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Question of the week: With the new tax laws should I keep my Home Equity Line of Credit?

 

Answer:  With the calendar turning to 2018 we are now under the new tax codes signed into law by President Trump in December. There is still plenty of confusion about how the IRS will treat many of the changes, among them is the interest paid by home owners if they have a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) and if it is deductible on the federal tax return. Reading through many articles and communicating with tax professionals, lenders that specialize in HELOCs and other research I am not entirely clear on how HELOC interest will be treated moving forward—and until the IRS issues a clear ruling I don’t think anyone else is either.

 

Some people may use the deduction, or lack thereof, to determine how they wish to move forward with their current HELOC, or to obtain one for purposes of home improvement, debt consolidation, college costs, etc. Here are some items to consider if you have, or are considering, a HELOC.

 

DISCLAIMER: I am not a tax professional, if you have a HELOC please consult with your tax preparer regarding the impact it has on your taxes.

 

There is a lot of information out that none of the interest on your HELOC will be deductible, regardless of when you obtained it or how the funds were spent (home improvement, debt consolidation, medical expenses, college, etc). Under this line of reasoning, if you have a $100,000 HELOC you obtained when you purchased the home in 2011, the interest is no longer deductible.

 

However, there are some “experts” that are stating that if your HELOC was used for the acquisition of your primary, or second/vacation home, then the interest paid on the HELOC is still deductible. These are contrary opinions, and if you have a HELOC that you have only used to purchase your home it obviously has an impact on your tax preparation in the future. If acquisition HELOCs will remain deductible then you are fine and continue as you have in the past, if they are not then you will want to meet with your tax and mortgage professionals to determine your best course of action moving forward.

 

If you obtained a HELOC to put in a pool, remodel your home or do other home improvements, in the past you probably had an interest deduction. Under the new law, based on almost everything I have read and heard, you will no longer be able to deduct that interest from your federal taxes.

 

If you have a HELOC that you used for medical expenses, college tuition and/or debt consolidation you will also not be able to deduct the interest moving forward.

 

Back to our question of the week, if you have a HELOC should you keep it? Especially if the interest you pay is no longer deductible?

 

As with most questions involving mortgages and personal finances, there is no standard answer for everyone. The factors you need to consider are:

 

How much is the tax deduction you are losing? If you have a balance of $50,000 and are paying $2500 per year in interest, is losing that deduction costing you a lot of money?

 

What are your options to pay off the HELOC? Do you have cash or assets you can liquidate to pay off the balance? If you do what is your trade off? What has been your return on investment for those assets and what is the rate on your HELOC? Are you making more in interest and/or dividend payments than you are paying for the HELOC?

 

Or perhaps you pay off the HELOC with a refinance of your primary mortgage and consolidate the two loans. Once again, we do the math, what is your current rate on your primary mortgage, what are your payments, what is the value of your home and the total balances we would be consolidating? And finally, and very importantly, what will be your new rate of interest and monthly payment?

 

One big factor to consider if you have a HELOC and are considering paying off or refinancing to consolidate the payment is your future interest rates. Almost every HELOC has its interest rate tied to the prime rate. The prime rate tends to move up and down when the Federal Reserve moves its lending rate up and down. In the past year the Fed has hiked its rates three times, each time 0.25% (one-quarter of one percent), resulting in the prime rate also going up 0.25%  three times for a total of 0.75% (three-quarters of one percent) in the past year. If you had a $100,000 HELOC in December 2016 and retained the same balance through the year your interest payment at the end of 2017 was $62.50 per month ($750 per year) more. The Fed has announced it intends to increase rates three more times in 2018, which will increase the rate on your HELOC another 0.75%.

 

With increases in the prime rate known to be coming in 2018, does it make sense to fix the rate on your HELOC balance and consolidate it with your primary loan?

 

When making a decision regarding your HELOC keep in mind the tax laws started on Monday, and the longer you wait to make that decision the more impact it could have on your tax returns for 2018 that you will file in 2019.

 

When you meet with your tax professional to prepare your 2017 taxes if you have a HELOC ask for advice about your interest deduction options for 2018. And before you meet with your tax professional do not hesitate to give me a call to discuss your options if refinancing and consolidating your HELOC is an option for you.

 

Should you keep your HELOC? Maybe, maybe not, but do your research and explore your options, contact me to discuss some of those options.

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

The final employment report for 2017 was released this week showing the economy added 148,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate was steady at 4.1%. The total hires in December were down from November and below expectations of those economists polled. A positive news in the report was a 0.3% increase hourly earnings from December, up 2.5% from December 2016. With inflation running below 2%, average wages increasing more than 2% is positive for workers. Within the report there was strength in construction and manufacturing hires and there are signs that scarcity of skilled labor in these sectors could be hindering growth. Overall the news is mortgage rate neutral.

 

Rates for Friday January 5, 2018: Ending our first week of the new year rates continue the steady pattern of the last few months with no change from last Friday’s rates. Conforming rates start 2018 one-quarter of one percent below (0.25%) what they were the first Friday on 2017.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            3.75%           Flat

30 year high-balance conforming                   3.875%        Flat

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

 

Today’s WR&MU is being composed from Palm Desert where the Smith family has been compounded for the week. I will admit to feeling no guilt as we have enjoyed very enjoyable weather, getting in a few rounds of golf and spells by the pool, as other parts of the country are digging out of their front doors and wondering which mound of snow in the street is their car. California is not flawless, with perhaps the exception of weather throughout the year and especially weeks like this.

 

I hope everyone had a wonderful New Year’s celebration and wish you all a very healthy and prosperous 2018!

 

Dennis

 

 

 

10-27-17: Should I use a “piggy-back” to buy my new home?

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Question of the week:  Should I use a “piggy-back” to buy my new home?

 

Answer:  We start our answer to the question with a question many of you may be asking, “what is a ‘piggy-back’?”

 

Last week we discussed mortgage insurance and how conventional mortgages require mortgage insurance for loans that are over 80% loan-to-value. If you are buying a home for $600,000 (the median price for a home in LA County) and getting a mortgage for more than $480,000 then you need mortgage insurance.

 

Using a piggy-back enables you to put less than 20% down and avoid mortgage insurance, because the piggy-back is a second loan that bridges the amount between your down payment and your mortgage of 80% of the purchase price.

 

For example, you want to purchase a home for $600,000 but you only have $60,000 down. Traditionally you would get a mortgage for $540,000 and pay mortgage insurance. Using a piggy-back you would put down $60,000 and get a 2nd loan for $60,000 and have your primary loan be $480,000, which is 80% of the purchase price and therefore you do not need mortgage insurance.

 

Not all, but almost all, piggy-back mortgages are Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC). What is a HELOC? It is very similar to a credit card, you have a maximum credit limit and you only make payments on the balance you have outstanding. The interest rate on a HELOC is an adjustable tied to the prime rate goes up and down so will the rate on your HELOC.

 

Another feature of many HELOCs is that the minimum payment is interest only, which makes them very enticing as the interest payment can be very low, however you are not paying down any of the outstanding principal which becomes an issue in later years when you have a very large balance that has to be paid off.

 

Since the HELOC is used to purchase the home the interest paid on the loan is tax deductible under the current tax code. This is a positive for many families, especially those who are unable to deduct mortgage insurance premiums.

 

As you can see there are some positive aspects to using a HELOC to purchase your new home, but back to our question of the week: should you use a HELOC to buy your home?

 

Let’s compare getting a HELOC with using mortgage insurance to purchase the median priced home in LA County of $600,000 with 10% down and you have a credit score of 740.

 

Let’s start with purchasing with a HELOC. You will have a primary mortgage of $480,000 (80% of purchase price) and a HELOC of $60,000.  The rate on the primary mortgage this morning is 4.00%, the average rate on a HELOC up to 90% total loan to value (combined 80% primary plus 10% HELOC) is Prime Rate plus 2%, today prime is 4.25% so the rate would be 6.25%.

 

Payment on the primary mortgage is $2292 per month.

The minimum payment on the HELOC is interest only which would be $313 per month*.

 

The minimum payment you must make is $2605 per month, until the prime rate increases and then your payment will increase as well.

 

Last year the prime rate was 3.5%, your rate would have been 5.5% for a minimum payment of $275 per month, if the rate increases another three-quarters of a percent in the next year your rate will increase to 8.00% for a payment of $400 per month.

 

*Most HELOCs are for twenty years, if you want to amortize the payment and include principal the payment at 6.25% would be $439 until the rate changes.

 

If you purchase using mortgage insurance your primary mortgage will be $540,000 at a rate of 3.875%** and your mortgage insurance premium will be 0.41% of the loan amount.

 

Primary mortgage payment is $2539 per month.

Your mortgage insurance premium is $185 per month.

 

Your total payment is $2724 per month as long as you have mortgage insurance, $119 more per month than if you used a HELOC to purchase the home and paid the minimum payment. If you pay additional payments on the HELOC to pay down the principal then you payment purchasing with a HELOC would be higher. As well when the prime rate increases in the future your “savings” with the HELOC will decline.

 

** It seems counter-intuitive that putting 20% down has a higher rate than putting 10%, however rates are lower for mortgages with mortgage insurance than those without as the lenders are insured for losses should you default. If you default on a mortgage that is 80% of the value of the property the lender will lose 10-20% of the loan amount. If you have mortgage insurance on a 90% loan the lender is covered on losses up to 25% of the value of the mortgage. Even though the risk of loss may be higher with 10% down, the amount of loss to the lender should you go to foreclosure is less than if you had mortgage insurance.

 

Note the statement above, “as long as you have mortgage insurance…” Those who read last week’s WR&MU will recall that after you make 24 consecutive payments on time and can show you have 20% equity in the property then you can have your mortgage insurance premium released. So between your mortgage principal declining through your payments and the market increasing you let’s assume you will have that 20% in four years (had you purchased the median priced home in LA County in 2015 you would be able to remove your MI this year) after purchasing your property. At that time you go through the process and have your MI payment removed, saving $185 per month, or $2220 per year.

 

The only way to remove your HELOC payment is to pay it off, and unless you have the ability to make very large payments over the years it will likely take you quite some time to pay off the loan.

 

Depending on your financial situation, and ability to pay down/off the HELOC rather quickly through sale of another property, large bonuses, etc, for most families the long term best option is to purchase their home using mortgage insurance that will have fixed payments, and the ability to remove the MI premium payments in the future, as opposed to a large equity line tied to a rate, the prime rate, that will be going up over the next few years.

 

Please call me to discuss your situation and determine the best way for you to purchase your new home. And if you have a HELOC, or mortgage insurance, from a  previous transaction call me to see what your options are to possibly lower your monthly payments, or keep them the same and fix your total monthly payment.

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

 

Economic data released this week for September shows strength building. Durable goods orders in September showed a nice gain, even trying to account for Hurricane Harvey. Showing even more strength was the initial Gross Domestic Product numbers for the 3rd Quarter, increasing 3.0%, a strong following from the 2nd Quarter’s 3.1% growth. Inside the numbers we saw strong growth in consumer spending and durable goods purchases-led by vehicle replacement post hurricane. The soft spot was residential real estate, which has been supporting economic growth for the past several years. Inflation was at 2.2% annualized with is within the Fed’s target range. Overall the report is fairly rate unfriendly and puts upward pressure on rates for the long term.

 

Rates for Friday October 27, 2017: We see the conforming and high-balance conforming rates un-linked this week. For the first time in almost a year the separation between the two rates is greater than one-eighth of one percent (0.125%) as the high-balance rate increased an eighth of a percent this week and the conforming rate remains flat. The last time we saw the one-quarter percent gap between the two mortgages was the week ending November 11, 2016 when we saw rates increase three-quarters of a percent in six weeks following the election. There is upward pressure on rates, the advice is to lock when you can.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            3.75%           Flat

30 year high-balance conforming                   4.00%          Up 0.125%

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

 

 

Well baseball fans are getting a treat, at least two treats so far with the first two games of the World Series, I am hoping we get five more similarly exciting games.

 

I will go out on a limb and presume that many (most? all?) of your households are like ours and the Halloween candy purchased in preparation for Tuesday evening has been thoroughly tested and perhaps the testing has gone so well as to require another purchase of candy for the witches, princesses, firefighter and bumble-bees on Tuesday night. Halloween candy, the official start to the end of the year belt-tolerance limit as we flow from the candy to Thanksgiving to Christmas and the non-stop treats, pies, cakes, etc for the next sixty plus days.

 

Stay strong, say no to yourself and Think Blue,

 

Dennis