Weekly Rate & Market Update 2-24-17

Question of the week: I’m doing my taxes, what is deductible from my mortgage transaction last year?

Answer: This has become an annual question for the Weekly Rate & Market Update.

NOTE! I am not a Certified Public Accountant, nor a professional tax preparer. Depending on your situation the following items may be deductible when you file your taxes:

• Mortgage Interest
• Origination/Discount Points
• Mortgage Insurance Premiums
• Property Taxes

Each of these is subject to not being eligible for deductions depending on the nature of your transaction (purchase, cash-out refinance, home improvements, etc) and your income.

My standard answer to this question was answered in the first sentence; I am not a tax professional. I have a hard enough time trying to keep up with the changes Congress, the Fed, HUD, DRE, Fannie Mae or other government agencies have regulated, I certainly have not been able to keep up with all the changes in the state and federal tax codes these past few years.

Note that the mortgage insurance premium deduction has been on a year-to-year extension by Congress and is subject to limitations based on income. Congress extended deduction in 2016 for 2016 but as of this point in 2017 the deduction is not part of the tax code—yet. This may change however, and the deduction could become a permanent part of the tax code not requiring annual renewal is H.R. 109 – Mortgage Insurance Tax Deduction Act of 2017 is passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. The bill sponsored by Rep. Brownley (D-CA-26) simply states, “This bill amends the Internal Revenue Code to make permanent the tax deduction for mortgage insurance premiums.” (Sidebar I have long advocated that every bill presented in Congress must be hand-written by the sponsoring member of Congress, not put together by staff or cut and paste from lobbyists, but pen to paper written by the member. This would lead to less complicated laws that are easier for everyone to understand. End Sidebar)

Whether this bill, currently in the House Ways & Means Committee, makes it through, and makes it through with the simple declarative sentence, remains to be seen, but if passed those paying mortgage insurance will have deductibility annually—possibly subject to income limitaions.

If you purchased, sold or refinanced property last year I strongly advise you to take copy of the HUD-1 closing statement from your escrow documents to a professional tax preparer or CPA. S/He will be able to assist you in maximizing your deductions while staying out of trouble with the IRS and State Franchise Tax Board.

Provide your tax professional with your IRS Form 1098 showing mortgage interest paid, and if applicable mortgage insurance paid and amount paid in property taxes for the year. (Note, if you paid under $600 in interest to a lender you will not receive this form—which is why your HUD-1 statement will be needed if you refinanced or purchased in 2016.)

If you need a recommendation for a tax preparer do not hesitate to contact me.

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

Housing data headlined economic reports this week. In a tale of two markets, existing homes sales and new home sales, the existing home sales in January were very strong while new home sales softened. Existing home sales across the country were up 3.3% from December and 3.8% from January 2016. Nationally the median home price is up 7.1% from last January, the West showed an 8.4% year on year increase. Housing has been driving economic growth and stronger housing will lead to more growth—which means higher rates. These conflicting reports result in neutral overall effect on mortgage rates.

Locally the price data shows a dip and a jump. The dip is in prices from December to January statewide and in all Southern California Counties, the jump is in prices from January 2016 to 2017. In LA County the median price for a single family home was $509,320 in January, up 5.9% from 2016, Orange County is up 5.7% for the year to $740,000. Both counties saw sales drop over 26% from December but up 6.7% in LA County from 2016 and down 1.1% in Orange County from last year. The best return on investment in California in 2016 on the median single family home? Del Norte County (most northeastern county, from Oregon border to below Klamath, Pacific to western part of Klamath National Forest), where if you bought the median priced home last January and sold in January you would have seen a 48% return, your buy price having been $157,000 and your sale price was $232,250.

Rates for Friday February 24, 2017: Our range is shifting up a bit for Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) prices (higher prices mean lower rates), not a lot but there is some momentum and if it holds we could see rates dip a bit next week. “If.” For now rates are flat from last week with downward momentum.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

2-24-17

Somehow I am not getting any older but our youngest daughter turned 15 this past weekend—I keep telling myself that. When I started the Weekly Rate & Market Update as a monthly email to real estate agents her older sister was still an only child. We have seen a lot of changes in our industry during her lifetime, I wonder what changes will occur in her next decade and a half.

The Oscar’s are this weekend and we’ve seen four of the Best Picture nominees (I wish they would go back to just five films nominated—but I’m a grumpy old guy who’s not getting older). Of the four we saw my ranking for the Oscar would be: winner: “Lion” A great story that is wonderfully told, great acting, very moving and everything that makes going to the movies a great experience. Just behind, “Arrival” I am not a sci-fi guy, Star Wars, Star Trek, etc are not a genre I like very much. “Arrival” is not of that type sci-fi, but an encounter movie that is fantastic. A mind bender with great acting and writing. I need to see it again as I understand it better after Leslie explained it to me and patiently answered my “but what about….” questions. In third place is another great movie with a wonderful story that is well told, and like “Lion” a true story, “Hidden Figures.” Perfect movie: story, acting, production, casting, every box for what makes a movie great is checked, I just liked the other two better. Finally, a very good movie that was very enjoyable and I can see how some would consider it a winner but I found fell short of the other three is “La La Land.” I have always loved musicals, from the big production Rogers & Hammerstein shows to Fred Astaire, Bing Crosby, Doris Day smaller scale but movies with great stories, humor and songs—I watch them all. La La is great in that maybe Hollywood will get back to making good family musicals again, but not quite there.

I realize by putting this list together I probably cursed “Lion” but hope not, it is very deserving.

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 2-17-17

Correction: or rather addition, to last week’s question and answer about using assets for qualifying income. An important factor I did not mention is that many lenders require you have at minimum of at least $500,000 in assets in order to use assets for qualifying income.

Question: Why is the cost for a loan with 20% down more expensive than a loan with 10% down?

Answer: Doesn’t make sense does it?

It does if you are a mortgage lender, or Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac who is backing those 80% and 90% loan-to-value mortgages. Because if you are Fannie or Freddie you want to make money not loose money and one part of achieving that objective is to mitigate risk.

But isn’t it more likely that someone who puts 20% down less likely to walk away from their home and create a foreclosure than someone who puts 10% down? Yes, the person with more down payment is less likely to let their home go into foreclosure. However, as we saw during the housing crisis many families who lost their homes had purchased with 20% down, or more. Because of the cost of foreclosure to a lender, typically greater than 30% of the loan amount, the losses to a lender for a loan that originated as an 80% mortgage are greater than the losses for a loan that originated with a 90% mortgage.

Why? Mortgage insurance.

If your mortgage has a loan-to-value of 80.01% or greater the lender will require mortgage insurance. The purpose of mortgage insurance? Reimburse the lender a certain percentage of the loan amount should you go into foreclosure—that reimbursement is typically to 65% of the original loan balance.

Let’s say that Fred and Barney are purchasing homes next door to each other for $400,000. Fred is putting 20% down for a $320,000 mortgage and Barney is putting 10% down for a $360,000 mortgage. Barney is required to have mortgage insurance that adds $132 per month to his payment, but covers the lender for 25% of the original mortgage ($90,000).

Most studies show that a foreclosure costs a lender approximately 30% of the loan amount. In the above example the cost to the lender should Fred be foreclosed on is about $96,000. Add the cost of the foreclosure to the loan balance and the total is $416,000. Even if the loan balance has decreased and the home value has increased there is very little room for the lender to get out of the transaction at a break even. Should Barney go into foreclosure the cost to the lender will be about $108,000—but the lender will get a check for $90,000 and the lender will lose $18,000. But this is if Barney defaults on the first day of the loan and there is no change in property value.

Most foreclosures occur because there is not enough equity for the borrower to sell the property and pay off the loan. In the above example let’s assume that the biggest employer in town where Fred and Barney both work, Slate Rock and Gravel, shuts down. Thousands of residents in Bedrock have lost their jobs and unable to make mortgage payments. Prices fall 10% on Fred and Barney’s homes and each of them have paid down about $10,000 on their mortgages as the closing comes a few years after they bought homes and became neighbors.

Now Fred and Barney’s homes are worth $360,000, Fred owes $310,000 and Barney owes $350,000. Fred’s foreclosure costs the lender $93,000, plus his loan balance of $310,000 and the total cost to the lender is $403,000 on a home worth $360,000—the lender is looking at losing $43,000.

Barney’s loan balance is $350,000 and the foreclosure cost to the lender is $105,000, total for the lender is $455,000. The lender gets a check from the mortgage insurance company for $90,000 (25% of original balance), lender is now into the loan and foreclosure for $365,000, the lender is losing $5000 on the value of $360,000.

Why is the cost of the 90% loan less than the 80% loan? Because the loss exposure to the lender is less due to mortgage insurance. The lower the risk the lower the cost of the loan.

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

Lots of rate moving information this week. On the data side we had reports on the Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales for January. The big number for PPI was higher than expected and supports higher inflation, up 0.6%. However the support is a bit eroded when the numbers are dug into as the bulk of the increase was a spike in energy prices in January (up 4.7%). The year over year PPI growth remains steady at 1.6%. The Consumer Price Index data also exceeded estimates, also increasing 0.6%–also pulled up by energy costs. The big news in the CPI data is the year over year number showing price increases of 2.5%, above the Fed’s target of 2.0%. Retail sales in January were very strong, up 0.4%, despite a drop in auto sales. The retail sales jump is reflecting higher consumer confidence. Adding strength to the retail sales report was a very large revision upward in December sales to 1.0% growth for the month. The three reports provide very strong support to the Fed to raise its Fed Funds rate at its March meeting, and following the releases of the reports on Tuesday and Wednesday we saw a strong drop in Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) prices—which means rates increase.

Adding to the higher rate momentum was Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s tour of Senate and House committees giving testimony and answering questions. Her comments were about as close as a Fed Chair will come to saying “we are raising rates at our next meeting” as well she indicated the data appears to support multiple rate increases from the Fed this year. Ordinarily this would pop rates up, however we saw a Fed rate increase priced into the market during the rate run-up in November and December.

Rates for Friday February 17, 2017: Week to week stability remains the norm as we are unchanged for the third straight week as MBS rally on Thursday and Friday following the mid-week drop. The low prices in MBS (higher rates) on Tuesday and Wednesday equaled lows for the past six weeks and are showing as a point of resistance, we are in a tight range for rates so there is no advantage to floating and trying to beat the market at this point—lock when you can.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

2-17-17

We got lucky with our French exchange student as we toured LA last weekend in perfect weather—she was Snapchatting and Instagramming to her friends in cold, wet France beautiful sunny beaches in Venice and Santa Monica and pictures showing the ocean and snow capped mountains from the top of the ferris wheel at the pier. This weekend, her last as she leaves for home Sunday, she is feeling a bit more at home with the weather.

Big storms are something I have always liked, and this weekend it appears I will be liking a lot. A reminder that with all the rain and storms this weekend and early next week, if you are thinking about buying a new home in the near future this is the time to look. Next weekend appears to be somewhat dry but in looking at homes you will find evidence of how they weathered the storms, any leaks, evidence of water coming onto the property or not draining properly around the house. Take advantage of the inclement weather to spot possible flaws in a home you may be considering to buy.

Enjoy being cozy with old movies and a fire this weekend as Mother Nature does what she does!

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 2-10-17

Question: Can I use my assets for income?

Answer: Possibly.

This question comes up from time to time with high net worth individuals who do not have a lot of income—perhaps they get retirement income or other payments that are not enough to qualify for a mortgage, but they have significant funds in investment accounts.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both have formulas to use asset accounts for income. The qualification process has several moving parts and I will see if I can clarify. Note that using assets for income is limited to owner occupied 1 and 2 unit properties with a maximum of 80% loan to value for a purchase or rate and term refinance (65% if taking cash out).

The first step is to determine if the account(s) that is being used for income qualifying is a retirement account or a “normal” account that is subject to taxes for capital gains, interest and dividend payments.

If the account is a retirement account, an IRA or 401(k) for example, then we must then determine if you have started taking annual distributions. If you are over 70 ½ then you are obligated to take minimum distributions based on tables provided by the IRS.

If you have already begun taking distributions then whatever amount you have already taken annually will be used for your income, unless you can show that an automatic payment of a certain amount has been set up and in place with your account holder. As well the account must have sufficient funds to show payments for five years. For example if you have an IRA with $500,000 and for the past two years you have taken out $24,000 then we will credit you for $2,000 per month in income.

If you have not yet begun taking distributions and are not yet obligated to do so then we apply a formula to your retirement account to calculate the amount used for income. First we determine if you will be assessed a 10% early withdrawal penalty by the IRS if you are under 59 ½ years old. Then we calculate if you will need any of the funds for down payment or closing. Then we determine if the funds are held in cash or stocks and mutual funds.

For simplicity sake let’s assume your account has $500,000 in it, you are 62 years old and the funds are fully invested in mutual funds, your funds for closing are coming from the sale of a current residence so you do not need the IRA for cash to close.

The first step is to multiple the balance by 70% to account for potential swings in the market in the future: 500,000 x .70 = $350,000.

We then divide the amount by 360 to get monthly income: 350,000 / 360 = $972.22 is the qualifying income.

What if your funds are in a “normal” account? First the funds must be seasoned for more than one year. So if you inherit a large sum of money or win the lottery you must wait to use the funds for qualifying income.

Then the same rules apply for qualifying, if funds are invested then use 70% of the balance then divide by 360 months. In some cases we have a client with a large amount of funds in cash as well as invested in this case we split the calculation.
Let’s assume you have $100,000 in cash and $400,000 invested. In this case we add the $100,000 to 70% of $400,000 = 100,000 + (400,000 x .70) = $380,000.

Divide by 360 and we get monthly income = 380,000 / 360 = $1055.56 per month.

If you or a family member is considering buying a new home, or needs to refinance their current home, and may be tight on income, give me a call and we can work through all the numbers, including assets, to determine if we can increase the qualifying income using retirement or other asset accounts.

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

Rates for Friday February 10, 2017: Very little economic news this week that impacts mortgage rates. Most of the movement in rates this week were tied to the equity markets as investors moved their money between bonds and stocks. There was some movement during the week but we end up this Friday flat from last Friday and the Friday before. Ah, some stability…

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

2-10-17

Our student from France, Mallory, is still with us and ready to take us on a Southern California tour. The kids have Monday off so this weekend the plan is to explore LA, possibly Venice Beach, Santa Monica Pier, Rodeo Drive, cruise down Sunset to Malibu, and then on Monday they will head up to Universal Studios while I recover back at work! I hope you have a great weekend wherever you are!

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 2-3-17

Question: Should I get a Home Equity Line of Credit, if so how does it work?

Answer: This question has come up frequently in the last few months, usually as part of a bigger question regarding remodeling your home and how to pay for it. Last January I discussed options for paying for a remodel of your current home, and encouraged you to weigh going through the remodel against buying the home you desire.

Those options are still there: new cash out mortgage, a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) or paying cash, or a combination.

Of the available options the most mysterious to many homeowners is the HELOC, what is it, how does it work? When looking for a HELOC what are the factors I should consider?

A HELOC works very much like a credit card. You are approved for a credit limit and you can use and pay down, and use and pay down and use…through what is known as the “draw period.” During this period your minimum payment is typically interest only. Interest is calculated by taking the published Prime Rate (lender will let you know which bank’s or publication’s Prime Rate it is using to establish your rate) and to the Prime Rate a margin will be added. If the draw period is not equal to the term of the credit line then when the draw period is up the ability to obtain funds from the HELOC is no more and the lender will generally fully amortize your payments for the remainder of the loan.

Let’s put some numbers to the explanation and make it a bit clearer for you:

You apply for and are approved for $100,000 HELOC. The lender says the terms are Prime + 1, the draw period if for ten years during which you must pay interest only on any outstanding balance and the total period of the loan is twenty years.

Currently the Prime Rate is 3.75% so the rate on any outstanding HELOC balance is 4.75%, until the Prime Rate changes at which point your rate will decrease (unlikely in short/medium term) or increase (very likely short/medium term).

You want to put in a new garage door and add cabinets to the garage, the cost is $10,000 and you decide to use your HELOC to pay for the work. After you take the funds out you get your statement for the first month and it shows you have a $10,000 balance and $90,000 still available for use. The rate is 4.75% on $10,000 so the interest due for the month is $39.58 (10,000 x 0.0475 = $475 for 12 month period, or $39.58 for the month) which is your minimum payment.

Having some additional funds you pay the interest plus another thousand dollars for a total of $1039.58. You do not use any more funds in the coming month so your statement shows a balance of $9,000, but right at the billing cycle the Federal Reserve raised their Fed Funds rate by 0.25%, as a result the Prime Rate also increased so your rate is now 5% (Prime = 4% + margin of 1%). Your account has accrued interest of $37.50 which is the minimum payment due and you have available credit of $91,000. You pay just the interest this month as you use additional funds you have for the month on fixtures, etc for the refinished garage.

Having finished the garage you realize that the exterior paint doesn’t look as good as it did before the new garage door so you hire a painter to paint and patch your home and the cost is $18,000 which you put on your equity line.

Your monthly statement comes and it shows you have an outstanding balance of $27,000, the Fed raised rates again by 0.25% so your rate is 5.25%, the interest you have accrued for the month is $118.13 which is the minimum payment due. You have available credit of $73,000.

And so it goes for the ten year draw period. You borrow the money on the HELOC, make your minimum interest payments some months and others when you have more funds available make payments to lower the principal balance. During the period rates fluctuate up and down and your monthly interest rate adjusts accordingly.

At the end of the ten year period you have a balance of $62,000 on the HELOC and the Prime Rate is 6.25%, your interest rate is Prime + 1 so your rate is 7.25%. The bank has informed you sixty days before that your draw period is coming to an end and in two months you loan will become fully amortized for the remaining ten years of the loan.

To amortize the loan the lender will take your outstanding balance, the number of months left on the HELOC and the current interest rate and calculate what the payment would need to be to make the same payment every month so at the end of 120 monthly payments your balance will be zero.

With $62,000 balance and a 7.25% rate your monthly payment the first month of no longer having the interest only option is $727.89, of which $374.58 is interest and $353.30 is principal. You make the minimum payment.

Coincidentally once again, the Feds raise the rate on the same day of your billing cycle to 6.5%, you HELOC rate is 7.5% and your balance is now $61,646.70 and you have 119 months left to pay off the balance. Your payment for the month is $735.89, a bit higher due to the rate increase.

For the next ten years your payment will adjust depending on the Prime Rate and your outstanding balance and the number of months you have left on your HELOC before it is to be paid in full.

Even if we were not coming off years of historically low interest rates, when getting any type of adjustable loan you should assume your interest rate will go up during the life of the loan. What may be a comfortable payment today may not be next month, year or in five years. As well since the rate is adjustable you should pay down the principal as much as you can as soon as you can to mitigate future rate increases.

Most banks and credit unions offer HELOCs, so what factors should you consider when looking for a HELOC and considering where to apply?

The primary factor is what is the margin over the Prime Rate for the interest rate you will be paying? Does the margin vary depending on how much you apply for, i.e. is the rate lower for $150,000 credit line as opposed to $75,000? Does the margin vary if the combined total of my current mortgage and my new HELOC exceeds a certain percentage of my home’s value, i.e. is the rate higher if the combined totals of the loans exceeds 80% of the value of my home?

Next what are the terms of repayment? Is the draw period short or long? After the draw period is up is the remaining balance amortized or can you still pay interest only? How long is the period the loan may be amortized?

Finally, what is the cost up front for the HELOC and what, if any, is the annual maintenance fee?

For many clients calling over the past few years inquiring about HELOCs I have suggested they contact their credit union instead of a major bank. While Stratis Financial does have some equity lines available I find the terms for many/most credit unions are better than what we can offer, and better than any of the major banks in the region. Particularly in the amount they will lend as a percentage of the value of your home and typically with the margin over Prime as well. If you don’t belong to a credit union research them anyway as these days many credit unions allow members beyond what their traditional charter called for—for instance I have accounts with a credit union that used to be exclusively for tele-communications workers, and in the past have had accounts with local teachers credit union, even though I have never been either.

I think equity lines are a very good financial tool to have handy if used wisely. They provide access to relatively cheap funds and due to their nature you can control your balances within your financial abilities.

My biggest piece of advice with having a Home Equity Line of Credit is to concentrate on paying down principal as soon as you are able so you are not caught in a difficult financial position many years down the road.

Finally, if you do have a HELOC and sell your home it must be paid off with proceeds from the sale, a lender will not let you carry it to your next home. As well if you are refinancing your current primary mortgage the total loan limit of the HELOC will be a factor in determining ability to qualify and possibly your interest.

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

December saw moderate gains in personal wages and salaries, increasing 0.3% after being flat in November. While wages had a moderate increase personal consumption so a more robust increase of 0.5% from November, mostly for durable goods—especially autos. With higher consumption increasing more than wages it is not surprise that the personal savings rate dropped for the month. For the year the personal price index increased a modest 1.6%, well below the target for the Federal Reserve. Overall the news is neutral for mortgage rates.

The monthly employment data for January was released today and new jobs for the month strongly exceeded expectations, with 227,000 jobs added for the month. The total exceed the monthly average of 187,000 for 2016. The best news in the report was that the private sector added 237,000—which means government employment decreased—and the participation rate increased. Hourly earnings increased only 0.1% for the month and the unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.8% as more people sought work. The news is somewhat mixed in that the number of new hires is good news but not keeping up with new job seekers tempers the positive. Overall the news is somewhat positive for rates as the data would suggest the Fed may not increase the Fed Funds rate at its March meeting.

Rates for Friday February 3, 2017: Still some inter-day instability in rates as investors try to process all the information and possible ramifications coming out of Washington, but a little less than in prior week(s). Week to week we are flat from last Friday as rates show resistance at the 4.125% level we have bounced off of three times in the past seven weeks. Looking ahead I maintain my advice to lock in your rate when you can through your rate period.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-30-16

Very busy weekend for the Smith family that should be a lot of fun. As many of you know our family moved to Brussels, Belgium after my freshman year in high school and I spent my sophomore through senior years in Belgium graduating from the International School of Brussels. Tonight Leslie and I are hosting a gathering of other ISB alumni in the Southern California region. We are expecting to have Mr.Vantieghen, the Belgian Consul General in Los Angeles make an appreance along with ISB Raiders who attended the school from the 1960s to more recent years. We have plenty of excellent Belgian beer on ice and look for to reminiscing about our years in Brussels.

Tomorrow we welcome to our home a student from a town outside of Paris who will be with us for the next two weeks. Our French visitor is about the same age as our oldest daughter, and no surprise they have been texting and Snapchatting each other with regularity. We look forward to sharing our home, city and region with her and learning about her life in France—as well as dusting off our French vocabulary and ability to coherently communicate.

Our Super Bowl will be a teenage affair as our daughters have invited several friends to our home to ostensibly watch the game, but more importantly to meet Mallory so she is more comfortable when she starts walking the halls of Poly High on Monday. No word yet on whether she is a Patriots or Falcons fan!

So the Super Bowl will be a bit of a background component to our Sunday, and not having any significant affinity for either team that is just fine by me.

I hope you have a great weekend and are entertained as much as you desire by the game on Sunday. My predictions have not been great so I’ll make one more—the Patriots in a very high scoring game (over 70 total points) and covering the 3 point spread Vegas has put out.

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 1-20-17

Question: What were rates when past Presidents took office?

Answer: This is a question I asked myself this week.

Unfortunately my records for the Weekly Rate & Market Update only go back to 2005 due to a computer melt down in late 2004 that resulted in the loss of a lot of past files at that time.

Fortunately President George W. Bush took office in January of 2005 so we can go back three inaugurations and compare rates. In doing my research I discovered that while the Weekly Rate & Market Update started in 2002, the Question of the Week made its debut on September 26, 2008 with “If I have a loan payment with Washington Mutual what should I do?” This was an inquiry from a few clients that morning since the night before federal regulators pushed/coerced/forced Chase to take over failing WAMU—then and still the biggest bank failure in history. Chase paid the FDIC $1.9 billion for the “right” to acquire WAMUs assets.

Back to rate history.

When George W. Bush, our 43rd President, took the oath of office on January 20, 2005 the 30 year fixed rate was at 5.375% (using same criteria quoted below). In his first year in office the lowest rate was 5.125% in late June and early July, the highest was 6.125% in early November.

When our 44th President, Barrack Obama, placed his hand on the Bible for his first oath on January 20, 2008 the 30 year conforming rate was 4.875%, four years later after his re-election the rate had dropped to near historic lows of 3.375%. During President Obama’s first term the lowest rate was 4.5% in late November 2009 and the high was 5.375% in June. In the first year of his second term the low 3.25%, reached six weeks, and the high was 4.5% in July and September of 2013.

Today when our 45th President Donald Trump swore to preserve, defend and uphold the Constitution the conforming fixed rate is 4.125%.

What will our low and high rates for 2017 be during the first year of Trump’s presidency? If we knew with certainty the answer to that question, and the timing, we would be able to greatly increase our liquid assets.

Regardless of what happens to interest rates the rest of this year, and the next four, it is my sincere hope that the rancor, partisanship and divisiveness shown the past few years is able to be put aside by the overwhelming majority of Americans and their elected representatives. E pluribus unum, out of many, one—always the strength of America, what weakens our nation is when the many choose to remain separate and point out differences instead of joining on commonalities.

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

Presidents come and go but the economy keeps going in one direction or the other. While the world has been focused on Washington D.C. and politics this week, the economic analysts still put out data reflecting where our economy has been and where it may be going. The Consumer Price Index for December showed a 0.2% increase from November and prices are up 2.1% from December 2015—not overly positive nor overly negative for mortgage rates. Energy price increases were balanced with a decline in food prices and the data gives not a lot of support for another increase in the Fed Funds rate, but does not give a lot of support for the Fed to not raise rates again later in the year.

Rates for Friday January 20, 2017: After three weeks of stable rates we saw a bump this week, mostly for technical trading purposes as some investors sold off to secure some profits. Looking ahead I see us in a range between 4.25% at the top and 3.875% at the bottom for the next several weeks for the conforming fixed rate.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.125% Up 0.125%
30 year high-balance conforming 4.25% Up 0.125%
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-30-16

Now that everything about the election that started almost two years ago most Americans will quickly pivot their interest to one national event, that while divisive also brings us all together: the NFL playoffs and who will be in the Super Bowl in two weeks. With four excellent teams and quarterbacks going at it this weekend sports fans should have two great games on Sunday to select who will play in Houston on February 5th. I have a rooting interest in the Packers based on a year long pool in which they were my first draft pick, but even without that interest I think the playoff experienced Packers will win in Atlanta. As for the game in New England I am also picking the visiting team to win. Yes Brady and the Patriots have more experience than the Steelers, but their defense hasn’t been that great this year and Brady has been really good but not as good as he has been in the past.

I should comment that I don’t really gamble because I am not right enough to make a living at guessing the outcome of sporting contests—regardless of who you root for know that someone who is diametrically opposed to you politically is also rooting for that team, something to build and repair a relationship that may have been dinged or damaged this past year.

Enjoy the games and have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 1-13-17

Question: How different is your job when helping a client with a refinance versus a purchase?

Answer: This question came up in conversation with some real estate agents who find themselves subject to greatly increased solicitation from lender representatives in the past several weeks looking for referrals.

Why the increase in solicitations? Because interest rates have increased slowing down the volume of mortgage refinance applications causing many lenders who have been answering phones taking refinances having phones that are not ringing. A great source of business for mortgage originators is real estate agents, the foundation for my business as well as many other “old timers,” so with a drop in refinance business….

Back to our question, how different is my job when working with a client refinancing a current home as opposed to working with a client purchasing a home?

Very different. Very, very, very different.

At the basics there is little difference. Collect personal and financial information on client, make sure the guidelines are met, process, submit, approve and fund the mortgage.

Where the differences start to appear however is all the variables that have to be considered, managed and solved for when working with a client purchasing a property.

Before you purchase a home we will want to make sure you can afford it and be able to successfully close the transaction. Are there items on your credit report that will require additional work that may delay an escrow? Are you funds for down payment and closing costs available and in the bank? Did you have large non-work related deposit(s) we need to account for? Is your income verifiable and eligible for consideration, especially if self-employed or have significant overtime or bonuses? Do you own a home now? Does it have to be sold for you to purchase your new home? This is part of what gets us through the pre-approval process.

The pre-approval information and any challenges we will be keeping an eye on must be communicated to your real estate agent so s/he will be aware and we can properly strategize not only price and loan amount but also timing.

When you find a home you wish to buy you will write an offer and naturally want it accepted. This will require a strong pre-approval package and the ability to communicate to the agent representing the seller (the listing agent) confidence in our ability to close your mortgage and therefore a successful close to escrow.

Once your offer is accepted we now have a firm deadline to meet which means managing timing for appraisal, loan processing, submission and approval. Coordinating final conditions and communicating timing to the agents, escrow and title companies to name just a few.

This is all if everything goes well. What if the seller has an issue on the home they are buying and we face a possible delay in closing? The appraiser discovers a problem with the property that will need to be repaired before we close? Could this have been prevented with proper questioning of the agents before we order the appraisal and corrective measures taken? What if there is language in the offer or counter-offer that could trigger more conditions from an underwriter? What if your buyer falls out of escrow delaying your closing? What if a tax lien pops up through title during escrow?

There are hundreds of “what-if” scenarios that can come up during a purchase transaction, many we have not yet seen but most we have seen and successfully handled through the years based on thousands and thousands of purchase transactions.

At the foundation for the differences between a refinance and purchase transaction is the communication. For starters we go from communicating primarily with our client and escrow to adding at a minimum two real estate agents, possibly more if there are other homes up or down stream from our transaction. That may not seem like much, however the communication between ourselves and the agents is critical to a smooth transaction and ability to solve problems that may pop up later in escrow as everyone has built a level of trust and confidence.

On paper it may not seem like there is a lot of difference, but experienced agents will let you know there is a tremendous difference in working with a lender who has experience with purchase mortgage transactions versus one who does not.

Whenever we get a call from a buyer in escrow who is having challenges closing their transaction with their lender it pains me that they have gone through the process and expense and not being able to get to closing. Had they called us before they started they could have avoided the headaches, frustration, stress and potential costs.

Buying a home is not the time to “try him out,” there is too much at stake for you and the seller. Make a call to someone who has experience and proven ability to assist you with your purchase transactions. (By the way, coming up on my 30th anniversary being licensed I have just a bit of that experience!)

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

The big news in residential real estate this week was the reduction of the annual Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) for FHA mortgages that close on or after January 27, 2017. The MIP for loans under $625,500 with minimum down has dropped from 0.85 points (0.85% or 85 basis points) to 0.55 points (on $400,000 FHA loan the monthly payment drops from $283 per month to $183 per month, $100 per month or $1200 per year). For loans over $625,500 the MIP drops from 1.05 points to 0.60 points ($500,000 the monthly MIP drops from $438 to $250, a savings of $188 per month, or about $2250 per year). The Upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium remains at 1.75% of the loan amount that is usually financed and added to the loan amount (for $400,000 this amount is $7000, for $500,000 it is $8750).

The final data for Producer Prices in 2016 were released this week and the news is mixed. Prices for wholesalers rose 0.3% from November and were up 1.6% from December 2015. Both numbers fairly benign and below what the Fed would like to see for economic growth. Food and energy were both very volatile in 2015. Food prices increased 0.7% in December but were down 1.1% from the prior year. Energy prices overall were up 2.6% in December, led by a 7.8% spike in gasoline, year over year energy prices climbed 5.9%. With overall prices under 2% growth the data is neutral for mortgage rates and gives little support to inflation in the near future.

How was your holiday shopping season? If you were a national retailer it wasn’t very great. Retail sales in December were a pretty decent 0.6% gain from November’s sales, however…take out auto sales and December holiday sales were only 0.2% above November’s take away autos and gas and there was no increase. This news is somewhat friendly for mortgage rates as it shows a slow-down in expected consumer spending (accounts for approximately 65-70% of economy) for what should be the busiest retails sales month of the year.

Rates for Friday January 13, 2017: Let’s hear it for stability! After a bit of a dip earlier in the week and rebound yesterday rates end the week at the same place they did on the last Friday of 2016. After the run up from the election to mid-December a few weeks of no change is quite welcome. Looking ahead we should stay in a tight range around the current rates for the near term.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-30-16

An interesting week coming up. On Monday we celebrate Martin Luther King’s birthday and his contributions to our nation, on Friday we celebrate the peaceful transition of power for the 45th time in our nation’s history. After a contentious, ugly, divisive atmosphere in the media, on social media and at many family dinner tables perhaps everyone can take this week to reflect on Dr. King’s message and from where our nation has come from his historic speech on The Mall in Washington D.C. in August 1963.

As I do every year on the Friday Weekly Rate & Market Update before Martin Luther King Day I encourage everyone to take about twenty minutes out of your schedule to watch Dr. King’s most famous speech. Watch as he goes from somewhat hesitant and stilted into a beautiful oratory rhythm that has moved millions since that hot summer day.

Click here for “I Have A Dream” and please share with other.

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 1-6-17

Question: No question this week as we are finishing up our vacation week in Scottsdale

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

December’s employment report is mixed. Only 156,000 new jobs (144,000 private sector) were created in December, which is low. However those who are working saw a 0.4% increase in wages with year over year wages up 2.9%, the highest year over year increase since the end of the recession. The news is neither rate friendly or hostile.

Rates for Friday January 6, 2017: Rates start 2017 where they ended 2016. Some large swings inter-week but as we get to Friday we are experience some welcome calm in the rates.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-30-16

I hope everyone is having a good start to the New Year. We are in Scottsdale for what has become our annual pilgrimage for some R&R. An unexpected guest for the week has been a cold bug hitting Leslie and I, but it has not hindered us—and at least we have our 2017 cold out of the way!

All the best to you in 2017 and beyond,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 12-30-16

Question: What were the highs and lows of mortgage rates in 2016?

Answer: As you can see by the chart below we are ending 2016 with interest rates just below the highest rates we saw all year.

The year started with conforming rates starting to fall from near 2015 highs, dropping from 3.875% to 3.75% (using criteria I have used for my chart quotes for over 15 years as described below) in six weeks. After a brief pop up into March rates remained very steady through June before hitting the lows of 2016 in July at 3.25%. From July until election week rates were either 3.25% or 3.375%. Post-election rates quickly climbed to their highs of the year, reached two weeks ago at 4.125%.

We end 2016 with the conforming fixed rate only 0.125% higher than it was on January 1st, but 0.75% higher than our lowest rates of the year. We end 2016 with the 30 year fixed rate at its highest since September 2014.

If I had to use one word to characterize mortgage rates in 2016 I would use “stable.” Absent eight weeks when we saw rates drop steadily (five weeks at start of year) or increase steadily (three weeks in November) rates held steady within a quarter-percent range from February to November.

If I have to use a word to characterize what I think rates will do in 2017 I will use “inconsistent.” With a transition of leadership in Washington that includes not just the President but the heads of every regulatory agency, one party control of the legislative and executive branches, international turmoil through the transition period with tensions increased in the Middle East and with Russia, an economy that appears to be strengthening amidst an international economy that is struggling, I see little that would create an environment for “stable” rates.

Instability in the economy, global relations and politics generally means lower interest rates as investors flee to the safety of fixed return investments like mortgages. However positive economic outlooks lead to higher rates. Rates will be effected by whether investors see more of a threat from external forces than positive economic impacts from policies and regulations.
[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

Rates for Friday December 30, 2016: We close 2016 with rates dropping for the first Friday September 23rd when rates had their last day on the low for the year. Flight to safety is the primary cause for the drop. There was scant economic news to impact rates this week, but plenty of political and international relations issues that did have an impact. With tensions ramped up between the United States and Israel and the United States and Russia investors have been moving from stocks to bonds to end the year. I see no lessening of the tensions for several weeks or more which could lead to lower rates—“could.”

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Down 0.125%
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Down 0.125%
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-30-16

Thank you to everyone who helped make 2016 another great year at Stratis Financial. We are very grateful for the opportunity to help so many families with their mortgage needs. For those who put their own reputation on the line by referring us to family, friends, co-workers, clients, etc we are extremely thankful for your trust and confidence.

We are into our eighteenth year at Stratis Financial and we know we would not be without the support of our wonderful clients and business partners who continue to return for their mortgage needs and refer others we can assist with our expertise and service.

Cheers to a wonderful 2017 to you and your family,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 12-23-16

Question: What should I do if I think someone stole my social security number?

Answer: This question came up this week when my father in-law had someone break into his home and steal financial documents, including tax returns and his passport. What to do?

Thankfully in the age of the internet it is pretty easy to get contact information for various notifications you need to make to ensure, or try to ensure, your protected from further theft using you social security number, bank or credit card information. Below I have a summary of contact information for various agencies you may want to notify.

The first thing you should do is notify your local police department or sheriff’s office and request an officer come out to take a report—you may need this report for insurance claim or some financial institutions.

Second call your bank and let them know what has happened, chances are they will want to close our account and open a new one. This means you will need to notify whomever you receive automatic deposits from, such as your employer or if retired the social security administration or financial institution that may be making transfers from your retirement account to your checking account. As well if you have any automatic payments for your mortgage, auto payment, utility bills, etc you will need to notify those companies if they pull your payments, or you will need to set up new transactions if you push the payments.

Then contact your credit card companies, they too will cancel existing accounts and issue new cards—same as above, if you have any automatic charges to your credit card(s) for services such as the gym, alarm company, insurance, Amazon, etc you will need to change the payment with those providers.

The bank and credit card notifications can be pretty simply, now comes a bit more work.

Contact one of the credit bureaus and they will place a fraud alert on your social security number and alert the other credit bureaus of the alert, here are the numbers for TransUnion and Experian, as well the link to file on-line:

Trans Union: 1-800-680-7289
Experian: 1-888-397-3742

You will want to notify the IRS so they are aware your social security has been taken and be on alert for someone using your number to file taxes and possibly get a refund sent to them at a different address or more likely a direct deposit of the refund into a bank account. You can file on-line with the IRS at this link: IRS Identity Protection or call them at 800- 908-4490.

The social security administration is a bit more challenging, waits on the phone can be very long, up to an hour, or you may visit the local office. The main concern retirees will have with the social security administration is the thief contacting SSA to change where the monthly social security check is sent, or setting up an on-line account. If an on-line account is set up, or changed, SSA will notify you via the mail as to the change. Contact the SSA to let them know about the theft and that you will not be setting up nor changing any on-line account.

If like my father in-law your passport is also stolen you need to file with the information with the State Department with a specific form, this form is available on line to print and send in, or you can complete the form on line and submit electronically at https://pptform.state.gov/ or you may call them at 877-487-2778.

Unfortunately there are those in our communities who have the desire to steal from others rather than earn it themselves, and we must protect ourselves as best we can. Try to keep your financial information in a safe and secure location, do not throw statements in the trash or recycle bins but shred them and keep an eye on your neighbors homes and hope they are doing the same for you.

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

Now that the Fed rate increase is old news, some traditional and relatively boring economic news was released this week. Existing home sales climbed in November along with interest rates, perhaps the rising rates knocked some who were waiting for lower rates off the fence when rates did climb. There is not a lot of supply so not only have rates going up but so are prices, those who have been waiting to purchase are paying higher monthly payments and prices for their new home. This news is semi-negative for mortgage rates.

Every revision is higher for 3rd Quarter GDP. With the third and final revision the GDP is estimated to have grown 3.5% in the quarter ending September 30th. It is the strongest quarterly growth since the 3rd quarter of 2014. Consumer spending pulled the GDP up also pulling up prices 1.4% over 2015. The news supports the Fed’s decision to increase rates last week and if future quarters retain the growth of over 3% then the chances of future rate hike from the Fed is very high. The news is unfriendly for interest rates.

Rates for Friday December 23, 2016: With a low volume trading week rates have stayed flat from last Friday, a welcome break in the increases we have seen. Will this be our ceiling in the current market? We have two short weeks back to back which can lead to tight trading so we may not see if we have leveled off for another two or three weeks. In the meantime my advice holds to lock in your rate lock as soon as you can to protect against future rate hikes.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.25% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-23-16

I hope Santa is kind to everyone and everyone is kind to each other through not only the holidays but also through 2017. Too much vitriol and empty rhetoric that has caused strains and breaks within families and friendships this past year. Let’s all stay focused on what we can do to be better husbands, wives, children, neighbors and friends.

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 12-16-16

Question: Does the Fed raising interest rates Wednesday affect me?

Answer: The last time we answered this question was last December, the last time the Fed increased its Federal Funds Rate. The answer on how the rate hike by the Fed earlier this week is no different than the answer when the Fed raised the fed funds rate last December.

How much will the rate hike affect you? Depending on the type of debt you have either a little or not a lot in the short term, longer term based on the Fed comments with the rate increase you could be impacted more in 2017 and beyond.

The actual increase by the Fed was from between 0.25% to 0.50% to now being between 0.50% to 0.75%. So the Fed is still not charging member banks 1.00% to borrow money.

Virtually none of your consumer, or if you are a business owner your commercial, debt is directly impacted by the Fed rate since you do not borrow from the Fed. However the rate that is generally tied to the Fed rate may impact you: the Prime Rate.

Contrary to common belief, there is no official “prime rate”, each bank may set its own but generally the consensus moves all banks rates to the same number. The Prime Rate is the rate that banks charge their best and most credit worthy clients. It almost always moves in the same direction and in the same amount that the Fed funds rate moves. Once the Fed moves the funds rate banks immediately increase their Prime Rate, why charge 3.5% when everyone else is charging and getting 3.75%?

The increase on Wednesday of the funds rate led to an increase of 0.25% of the Prime Rate from 3.50% to 3.75%. This was only the second increase in the Prime Rate since 2006, with the last increase coming in December 2015 from 3.25% to 3.50% and the prior increase was June 2006 when the Prime Rate moved from 8.00% to 8.25%. In June 2006 not only did the Prime Rate hit a cyclical peak, being the highest since 2001, but peaking were also housing prices, stock markets and GDP before the Great Recession.

Those consumers who are most immediately impacted by the increase in the Prime Rate are those who have lines of credit, more specifically for homeowners, those who have Home Equity Lines of Credit. Almost every HELOC interest rate is tied to the Prime Rate, either Prime plus a margin, minus a margin or just plain Prime. So when the Prime Rate increased on Wednesday by 0.25% so too did the rate you are paying on your HELOC. This means your monthly payment is increasing accordingly.

Some consumer credit cards are also tied to the Prime Rate, in which case the rate you pay for your Visa or MasterCard will also increase, resulting in an increase in your minimum monthly payment.

The net monetary impact is not tremendous to most people. If you owe $100,000 on your HELOC and your rate is equal to prime your minimum payment has increased from $292 per month to $313, a $21 increase.

Longer term those who may be impacted are those who still have adjustable rate mortgages. Slowly the Fed hike can begin to move the benchmark rates that are used for ARMs, those being the LIBOR or U.S. short term Treasury notes. It is important to note that these rates move independently of the Fed and also banks’ prime rates, however as the rate environment increases these rates will follow. This also means that the cost to maintain government debt, federal, state and local bonds will be increasing, meaning it will take more tax dollars to pay the interest on borrowed money.

As for fixed rate mortgages the impact is negligible for the current increase. With all the talk, speculation and predictions of a rate increase by the Fed the increase was priced into mortgage rates some time ago by investors purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). As anticipated the immediate reaction in the MBS markets following the increase was a jump in MBS prices (lower rates).

Looking forward, however, there is an impact on fixed mortgage rates as the Fed announced it anticipates three more rate hikes in 2017 with each increase being 0.25%. Because of this announcement investors will start pricing these anticipated increases which will put upward pressure on all interest rates, including mortgage rates. Baring an economic downturn (which I am on the record predicting for around the middle of 2017) mortgage rates probably have seen their floor this past year.

If you have a HELOC the then rate increases next year will raise the Prime Rate basis for your interest rate from 3.50% to 4.25%, increasing the repayment on $100,000 from $313 per month to $354 per month.

One other impact of the rate hike for consumers, you should see a slight bump in the rate your bank pays on your savings or money market account—perhaps paying up to a full one percent, one and a half?

Looking forward rates on consumer debt for credit cards and auto loans will see increases with the increase in the Prime Rate and rates in the Treasury and mortgage markets.

So to paraphrase that great writer, overall the Fed hike is much ado about nothing in the short term, a small increase in some people’s payments but for most no impact at all.

Have a question? [email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

The Fed news casts a long shadow over other economic news released this week, but even in the shadows the data released this week shone a bit given its significance. Both the Producer and Consumer Price Indexes for November were released. PPI increased 0.4% for the month and 1.3% for the year, exceeding expectations and stronger than we have seen in several months. CPI lagged increasing only 0.2% after 0.4% increase in October but year over year the increase is 1.7%, a big part of the increase being housing costs. The news for the price increases are mortgage rate unfriendly as they show inflation momentum which supports higher rates in the future to temper inflation.

Retail sales had interesting data for November. Overall growth was only 0.1%, not a good number. The total number was dragged down by auto sales which fell 0.5% for the month, but a lot of strength from restaurants which rose 0.8% for their biggest gain since February. Also strong were furniture and furnishings. The latter two data sectors are important as they are generally discretionary spending showing consumers feel confident by spending beyond essentials. Overall the big number is positive for mortgage rates, however the details of the report is not as positive forecasting possible strengthening consumer spending.

Rates for Friday December 16, 2016: I have a service that texts me the movement of Fannie Mae Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) throughout the day. A normal day may have updates every hour as schedule, up 5 basis points (bps), down 4 bps, small normal movements of a calm market. Since the election we have had some days where the message is up 20 bps, down 16 bps, up 19 bps, etc. indicating rates moving up and down. Wednesday following the Fed rate hike announcement I was in my weekly Rotary lunch meeting and my phone was lighting up, as the MBS fell being down 21 bps for the day, down 43 bps, down 52 bps, 64 bps, 79 bps, 86 bps, finally closing down 89 basis points for the day. Wow, a run straight down meaning rates shooting up through the day based not on the Fed rate hike which was priced into the market but because of the announcement of more hikes in 2017. For those waiting for lower rates that ship has probably sailed. I have missed this market completely. I thought we would see a flight to safety with a Trump election due to uncertainty but the exact opposite has happened as investors flee the safety of bonds and mortgages and have been buying equities. Looking forward there no longer appears to be any large correction to lower mortgage rates short of a possible recession in the future. Rates are up 0.75% in the past six weeks.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.125% Up 0.125%
30 year high-balance conforming 4.25% Up 0.125%
30 year FHA 3.50% Up 0.25%
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Up 0.25%

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-16-16

A celebratory week for us. First, tomorrow is our annual company party. I am so proud to work with the great people at Stratis Financial. The opportunity to celebrate another great year of helping families with their mortgage needs while working with professionals who are the best in the business and do so in a relaxed fun atmosphere is something for which I will always be grateful.

Speaking of grateful another, and more personal and special, celebration will be held next Wednesday as Leslie has a somewhat significant birthday. Not less than a few years ago we had a big celebration for her 39th birthday and have been celebrating anniversaries since. This summer we through another big celebration for early celebration for this birthday since it is hard to have a party four days before Christmas. I am so grateful to have been able to say, Happy Birthday to my wonderful wife for what will be the 23rd time. Happy Birthday Leslie, so proud to be your husband!

Have a great week,

Dennis