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3-9-18: Why do I need to pay for a home inspection and an appraisal?

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Question of the week: Why do I need to pay for a home inspection and an appraisal?

 

Answer: With many of our clients being first time buyers this is a question that pops up as they try to learn the vernacular of real estate, understandably because the appraiser does inspect the property.

 

The quick answer is, if you are getting a mortgage you will most likely need to pay for an appraisal*, and if you are buying a home you should pay for a home inspection.

 

(*) There are instances with conforming loans (Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac) where the Automated Underwriting System (AUS) will have in the approval findings that they (Fannie or Freddie) will purchase the mortgage from the lender with an “appraisal waiver” instead of a full appraisal. Not uncommon for the waiver to show up, but not real prevalent either. For our purposes today we assume there is no waiver.

 

While both the appraiser and home inspector look at, or inspect, the property, each is doing so with a different purpose and therefore have different reports for you to assist in your decision to continue with your transaction as agreed to with the seller, or perhaps ask for some modifications to the agreement. The purpose of the appraisal is value as collateral, the purpose of the inspection is condition of the property.

 

As mentioned, the appraiser’s purpose is to objectively determine the fair market value of the property for the lender. Since the home you are buying is the collateral for the lender there needs to be sufficient value to support the loan for which you are applying. Therefore the primary work of the appraiser is to evaluate the property in comparison to other similar properties that have sold, and are on the market, in the vicinity.

 

Many people are surprised at how little time most appraisers spend in the property when they are inspecting it. When the appraiser visits the property s/he will take pictures of the exterior and interior, note if certain compliance laws are being followed (smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, strapped and raised water heaters), and if there are any noticeable issues visible by cursory inspection that can create a safety hazard or impact value (broken windows, exposed wiring, obviously deteriorating roof). If there are any very noticeable adverse conditions the appraiser will take pictures and note in the report. The appraiser will also measure the property to include the floor plan in the report. Depending on the size and condition of the property the process takes 15-20 minutes.

 

Most of the work for the appraisal is done away from the property at the appraiser’s office researching recent closed sales, pending sales (in escrow but not closed) and active listings on the market, before visiting the property. Looking for properties that as close as possible to the subject property in square footage, bedroom and bath count, amenities such as pool or spa, condition and proximity, the appraiser notes the similarities and differences and of course the prices of the properties.

 

Using a matrix in the report the appraiser begins making adjustments to the “comps,” or comparable properties. One property is bigger by 200 square feet, so there is an adjustment of $10,000, another has only one and a half bathrooms and the subject has two full baths so there is an adjustment of $15,000, one property sold four months ago and the market has gone up since that sale resulting in a $17,500 adjustment.

 

The appraiser makes adjustments as the properties are compared and in the final column adds up the plusses and minuses to the comparable properties and adjusts the sales (or list if pending sale or active listing) price. If your sales price is $500,000 and the comparable sold for $490,000 but is slightly smaller, in similar condition and closed the sale last week the appraiser may have made $11,000 in adjustments for an adjusted price of $501,000. The next comparable sold for $515,000 but is bigger but in worse condition as it was a rental and the appraiser deducts $17,000 from the price for an adjusted value of $498,000.

 

From the adjusted prices the appraiser presents the opinion of value, if the other comparables are similar to the ones in the above example the appraiser will most likely conclude the value of the property is the sales price, $500,000. The lender now has professional, third party confirmation of the value of the collateral proposed for the loan.

 

In short, a bit late at this point to be short, the appraiser’s work is done without much need for detailed inspection of the property.

 

If you are meeting a home inspector at the property you are purchasing and intend to shadow him or her as the inspection is made you need to block at least two hours on your calendar. The purpose of this inspection is to thoroughly inspect all the physical attributes of the property and test all the mechanical systems. Because of this the inspector will need to spend quite a bit of time at the property. My advice is to always accompany the inspector as s/he does their duty. You will learn a lot about your new home and the inspector will make verbal comments to you that will make reading the report a bit easier later.

 

The inspector will crawl under the home if you have a raised foundation. Climb up on the roof. Go in the attic. Put electrical instruments in all the plugs. Switch every wall light switch on and off. Turn on all the faucets in the sinks and showers and then flush the toilets. Walk the perimeter of the building looking for cracks and how water drains. Doors will be opened and shut. Heating and cooling systems turned on and off. If appliances are included they will also be tested. The floors and flooring will be noted for wear and tear.

 

A good home inspector will look at your home in a more intimate way than your family doctor will you during a physical. Well, perhaps.

 

As the inspection is going the inspector is taking detailed notes which will result in report this is, no surprise given the scope, very detailed. The inspector will, or should, go through the report with you indicating what items are noted and to what extent there should be some concern on your part for future repairs or replacements.

 

It is easy to read through a report and think, “wow, what a mess…” but for most buyers in California you are buying a used home, most likely at least thirty or forty years old, and in many cases like ours over sixty years old when we purchased it almost twenty years ago. There will some flaws, some wear and tear. The important aspects of the inspection are any items that are in need of costly repairs or replacements in the not too distant future. Is the roof nearing the end of its life? Is the heating system antiquated? Does the electrical need upgrading?

 

The appraisal is a required expense for most buyers due to obtaining a mortgage to purchase the property. The inspection is optional, however I would never advise buying a home without first obtaining a home inspection from a professional inspector. Even if you are purchasing new construction it is strongly advised; a friend of mine, many real estate agents reading this will know, George Harper, who was an inspector for many years once told me, he found as many issues in brand new construction as older homes due to quality of workmanship when tract housing is being built—don’t assume because it is brand new it is perfect.

 

The purpose of the appraisal and the inspection are different, but both are important to your home buying process.

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

Some really big news this week, both economic and political, that can impact rates. On the political side President Trump had an interesting day yesterday—well he has one everyday but for our purposes in composing the WR&MU it was particularly interesting. Directly impacting the economy of the United States and other nations Trump an authorization on tariffs for steel and aluminum imports. This could, probably will in the short run, result in higher prices for those commodities and the products requiring steel and aluminum for manufacture. Ordinarily this would result in investors fleeing stocks and buying bonds, thereby lowering interest rates. Yesterday it was also announced that Trump will be meeting face to face with Kim Jong-un the “supreme leader” of North Korea, at Kim’s request, for nuclear talks. Ordinarily this would be bad for bonds, meaning higher interest rates as good news has investors selling safe, fixed income investments and buying more risky stocks and equities. Neither bit of news had a tremendous impact on the markets, which is surprising to me as I thought the tariffs would result in a pretty strong boost to mortgages and lower rates.

 

Good news is bad, bad is good, when it comes to interest rates. Long time readers of the Weekly Rate & Market Update know this—bonds are fixed return investments, as are mortgages, and are considered “safe” because if you buy them you know what your return will be based on the interest of the bonds. When there is bad news that leads to an uncertain future investors engage in a “flight to safety,” purchasing fixed incomes products like bonds and mortgages creating lower interest rates, and to do this they usually sell stocks, resulting in lower stock prices. The converse is true with positive news, bonds are sold, resulting in higher rates, and stocks are purchased.

 

Today we had some unexpectedly very positive economic news. The Labor Department released its February employment report and it vastly exceeded expectations. The consensus range for new hires in February was 152,000 to 230,000 workers added to payrolls. The actual number was 313,000 new workers added to nonfarm payrolls, as well January’s new hire totals were adjusted up 54,000 workers. The only negative in today’s report was the concern for wage inflation with the strength in employment expansion with average hourly earnings year over year growing 2.6%, more than half a percent over inflation. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% for the fourth month in a row. With the very strong employment signally economic growth, and possibly supporting a fourth increase in rates from the Fed this year instead of the scheduled three increases, rates opened higher this morning to the surprise of no one in the industry.

 

Rates for Friday March 9, 2018: With all the news this week rates remain constant from last Friday, our fifth straight week at the same rate on conforming. I will admit to being a bit surprised we are not higher than last Friday with the news this week.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            4.25%       Flat

30 year high-balance conforming                       4.50%      Flat

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

 

As most of you know, I am a big sports fan. This coming week is the start to one of my favorite sporting events—the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Few events have the nail biting finishes, numerous upsets and the energy that occur over three weeks of March Madness. On Sunday the teams participating will be announced and the brackets revealed showing each team the path they need to take if they are going to be cutting down the nets on April 2nd in San Antonio. On Monday campus and office tournament organizers across the country will be posting rules and “costs” and millions will fill out their brackets for “bragging rights.”

 

Every year there is more and more parity in college basketball, and this season was no exception, which should ensure us another tournament filled with surprises and excitement. I hope you are able to enjoy it as much as I will.

 

Have a great week,

 

Dennis

2-23-18: Do you think we are in a real estate price bubble that is coming to an end soon?

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Question of the week: Do you think we are in a real estate price bubble that is coming to an end soon?

 

Answer: This question, or some variation, has been asked by several different people in several different settings in the past few weeks. From clients, to real estate professionals, to friends, to attorneys and accounts asking in my office, on the phone, at dinner and in networking meetings, everyone wants to know, will housing markets drop precipitously in the near future?

 

My short answer: No. No, I do  not think we are in a real estate price bubble that is ending soon.

 

My long answer: why I feel this way.

 

One underlying facet to the question is everyone’s experience from the 2007-8 market crash, and the expectation that it will be duplicated because we have experienced a very large increase in real estate prices in the past 5-6 years, similar to the home price increases in the early 2000’s.

 

Comparing our current market to the market at the beginning of the century is not comparing similar actions and motivations of the buyers in the markets.

 

The pre-recession housing bubble was created by several factors. First, was the ease of financing. Following the lead of hard money, then soft money, lenders, Fannie and Freddie were purchasing mortgages from lenders that required no verification of income or assets and in many instances required no appraisal. Further, they were buying loans that were secured by homes with no equity—borrowers were also obtaining second mortgages, usually HELOCs, that took their total loan to value to 100% of the property value.  This easy money enabled many people to purchase homes, or refinance current homes and pull out equity, well above the prices and mortgages they would normally be able to qualify for, which often resulted in borrowers choosing adjustable rate mortgages for lower payments.

 

Second, were the motivations for much of the purchasing activity. Prices go up based on purchases not on refinances, the closed sales become comparable sales used for the next sales in a neighborhood. As prices rose many people felt that had to buy right away or miss out, not just on buying a piece of property but also on the money that could be made as the market went up. The shift in purpose that we saw was people buying investments they would live in instead of buying homes. They were motivated by trying to capitalize on a market, which resulting in highly leveraged and risky purchases, with the intention of selling or somehow cashing out—which was done with refinancing, pulling out equity and using this equity for consumption of goods and services.

 

Third, once the market softened homeowners who were highly leveraged, in mortgages they could not afford once they adjusted, and had little to no money in their home from their savings, found it easier to walk away or sell at a loss than homeowners who purchased in conventional markets.

 

Today, there is a healthy foundation to the housing market. Changes in underwriting policies have ensured that borrowers have the income to debt ratios and credit history to afford their mortgages. When purchasing they have down payment into the property, i.e. “skin in the game.” One more solid piece of this foundation, the overwhelming majority of homeowners who have mortgages that are long term low fixed rates.

In one market you had speculative purchasing, made with little to no down payments, financed with non-qualifying mortgages, many of which were non-fixed rate products. In the other market you have buyers purchasing homes for the long term, purchasing with down payments and financed with long term fixed rate mortgages with low interest rates.

 

If/when there is a turn in the housing market and we see prices flatten, or even dip, there will not be the resulting sharp drop in prices across regions because of the solid foundation that has been built with qualified, well-motivated homeowners. Bubbles pop and created market downfalls not because of a slight correction, but because that correction snowballs as owners panic and sell their product, thereby creating significant over-supply and exponential price declines. With families owning homes they can afford to retain and having purchased with their hard earned savings, a dip in the market will not create a panic-selling environment for any significant portion of the market to create a crash.

 

The most significant threats I see to housing in California, particularly along the coastal markets (which I define as any county that touches the Pacific) are cash for purchasing homes and interest rates. Both of these factors can limit buyers ability to qualify as home prices climb.

 

At some point prices will flatten, and possibly decline, I do not see this happening in the near future, but when this occurs it will not be long lived nor a deep decline in housing prices across several markets in the region, state or nation.

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

Overreaction? On Wednesday the minutes were released from the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the group at the Federal Reserve that determines the federal funds rate. Almost immediately after the minutes were released, well immediately after investors had time to read them and then take action in the market, rates jumped as investors sold off bonds and mortgages. Why? Because the Fed has adjusted its economic outlook since its December meeting, forecasting stronger economic growth than previously thought and achieving the 2% inflation target sooner than previously thought. The minutes also showed that the FOMC members still feel that the economic outlook supports further “gradual increases” in the federal funds rate. Many investors trying to read the tea-leaves felt the Fed maintaining its stance was instead a signal that it will raise rates more than previously estimated (three times this year). This created a sell-off that became more pronounced as the day progressed spiking rates.

 

Rates for Friday February 23, 2018: After Wednesday’s big sell off investors returned to market with cooler heads on Thursday and Friday as investors bought back into the bond markets and over the two days scratched back almost all the losses. We see a slight bump in high-balance rates, but conforming holds on for the second straight Friday with no change. As we have been saying for over a month, rates are volatile so lock when you can.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            4.25%       Flat

30 year high-balance conforming                       4.50%      Up 0.125%

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

Busy weekend for the Smith household as we host about 20 fifteen and sixteen year old’s for our daughter’s Sweet Sixteen party. Hopefully the weather cooperates and is not too chilly since we are setting up for an outdoor formal event. It is fun watching our little ones become young adults and see their friends grow and mature right alongside them. Sunday will be having family over for another celebration, and then perhaps a nap!

 

Have a great week,

 

Dennis

2-9-18: What is the impact from the falling stock market prices on mortgage rates?

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Question of the week: What is the impact from the falling stock market prices on mortgage rates?

 

Answer:  Before we answer the question, let’s do some Econ 101 review on stocks, bonds, rates and markets.

 

Traditionally there is an inverse relationship between stocks and bonds, when stock prices go up, bond prices go down and vice-versa, remembering that when bond prices go up rates go down, when bond prices drop rates rise. Therefore if stock prices drop, traditionally bond prices rise which means interest rates drop.

 

The underlying reason for the inverse relationship is that stocks are inherently volatile and bonds are inherently stable. When you purchase a bond, and keep in mind your mortgage is someone else’s investment that acts like a bond, you are buying a fixed return for a fixed period of time. If you purchase a 10-year bond for $1000 paying 5% per year, you know you will receive $50 per year in interest. In ten years, after receiving $500 in interest payments you will receive your $1000 initial investment back.

 

If you purchase $1000 of stock in DCSmithCo you may receive 20 shares if you purchase on Monday, 21 if you buy on Tuesday or 18 if you purchase on Wednesday. When you go to sell your shares in the future you may receive your original $1000 back, or $1250, or $875 depending on the market conditions.

 

Because of the volatility of stocks, when there is an “event” that creates uncertainty, investors will engage in “flight to safety,” taking their money out of stocks and purchase bonds. Supply and demand: selling stocks puts excess supply in the market causing prices to drop; buying bonds puts excess demand in the market causing prices to rise—and rates to drop.

 

Fundamentally, when there is a large sell-off, or correction as we appear to be having, in stocks investors selling their stock holdings purchase bonds causing rates to drop.

 

That is not what happened this week. Investors have been selling both stocks and bonds.

 

Why was the traditional relationship broken?

 

An underlying, perhaps overlying, reason for the sell-off in the stock market that started last Friday was concern about rising interest rates by investors. The Fed has been taking actions to create higher interest rates. First, they have announced that there will be at least three increases to the Fed Discount Rate in 2018, which will trickle through to increases in the prime rate, which trickles to other consumer rates. Second, the Fed has begun to sell off Treasury bonds and mortgages it began purchasing in 2008. Selling up to $30 billion per month of these assets, the Fed is adding supply to the interest rate market. What happens when there is over-supply in bonds? Prices drop which means rates rise.

 

With the expectation for higher rates, with the action by the Fed to increase rates by selling interest bearing assets in the market to support those expectations, Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) have seen prices drop causing rates to rise. Reminder, MBS are the financial instruments that are bought and sold that determine mortgage rates.

 

What is the impact on falling stock prices on mortgage rates? In this current cycle, there is no impact on mortgage rates from falling stock prices. However, falling bond prices (which means higher rates) have had an impact on stock prices, causing them to fall.

 

Markets are very volatile right now as the stock market goes through a correction and the bond and mortgage markets search for stability trying to understand the impact the Fed asset sell-off will have in the long term.

 

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

There was no significant economic data released this week that would impact mortgage rates—or stock prices. The only somewhat meaningful set of numbers released this week was unemployment claims for the week of February 3rd, which showed 221,000 initial claims filed and continuing claims down 33,000 to 1.9 million still on the rolls. What was very significant about the Department of Labor report was the four-week moving average of initial claims is the lowest in 45 years. The last time there were this few unemployment claims filed the American work force was at approximately 88.4 million workers, compared with approximately 161 million today.

 

While the number itself is not a direct impact on rates, the underlying message of a strong labor force that is showing more being employed and upward pressure on wages lends support to higher rates as they reflect a growing economy. The extrapolation is this will bring inflation and unless rates are higher inflation could become an economic danger, eroding returns on investment and slowing growth as people are priced out of consuming certain products and services. This is the real basis for the volatility in our markets—higher rates and potential inflation.

 

 

Rates for Friday February 9, 2018: As I type this Friday morning from the tire story, see below for those curious, mortgages are seeing their first real positive day in over a week. Is it a short-term blip slowing rising rates, or have we seen the recent jump in rates halted until the next cycle? Conforming rates are up another one-eighth of one percent (0.125% ) from last Friday, the third week in a row with such an increase, but high-balance conforming rates are flat from last week. Anyone who is thinking a downside rate correction is very near and is floating to capture a dip is taking a very big risk. Something I have said for years in up markets bears repeating, rates tend to go up like a rocket and come down like a feather. Lock your rate when you are able.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            4.25%       Up 0.125

30 year high-balance conforming                       4.375%     Flat

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

 

Well they say things come in threes and for the Smith household threes have been tires. Last week Leslie had a mishap and needed a new tire. Yesterday the oldest clipped a curb in front of the house and took out a chunk of tire the size of a half-dollar. This morning I am on my merry way to work when I notice the car feels funny, pull up two houses down from ours and see one of my tires is a pancake—with a nail imbedded in it. Thank goodness for AAA, something we have had for 23 years and added our daughter as soon as we could.

 

I see the flats and tire expenses and waiting as the penance I must pay for the joy experienced last Sunday when the Eagles once again overcame underdog status to win their first Super Bowl. Thankfully my daughters were not fast enough with their cell phones to record Dad’s hysteronics as he flapped around the house singing the Eagles fight song and freely expressing his joy at the result of an incredible game. If going through three flat tires in a short period of time is the price of a championship I look forward to a similar cost in June, or perhaps in November, when the Flyers or improbably the Phillies, mimic the Eagles success!

 

Have a great week,

 

Dennis

 

 

 

 

2-2-18: What is “tiered” pricing

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Question of the week: What is “tiered” pricing?

 

Answer:  There are several axioms in economics, the two most well-known are that supply and demand determine prices and that the greater the risk the greater the return. Both of these axioms determine your mortgage interest rate. Rates in general are determined by supply and demand for mortgages as investments, your rate in particular is further determined by risk. When pricing your mortgage we put several factors into the pricing software and it filters through those factors and returns with the price for your particular circumstance.

 

Tiered pricing is used by lenders to adjust for risk, the riskier a loan the higher the rate. What creates risk in a mortgage? Several factors create risk; the most important ones are occupancy, loan to value and credit history as represented by credit score.

 

Tiered pricing comes into play in two different ways. First, the tiers added to a loan price for some of the factors mentioned above, these “add-ons” are standard pricing adjustments on conforming loans from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or if a jumbo loan from whomever the investor may be.

 

Let’s take an extreme example. A borrower obtaining a $400,000 loan for the purchase of a condominium as investment with 20% down and a 711 FICO score will have different pricing than someone obtaining a $400,000 loan for the purchase of a condo as their primary residence with 30% down and a FICO score of 798.

 

Taking a look at our non-owner occupied transaction with a condo as the property type. The following add-ons occur to the price of the loan (one point is equivalent to 1% of the loan amount, in this case one point is $4000):

 

Investment property = 3.75 points

Credit Score = 1.25 points

Condominium = 0.75 points

Total add-ons = 5.75 points

 

What if the borrower put down 30% and purchased a condo but for owner occupancy? Because of the change in risk the add-ons, or tiers, change:

 

Credit score = 0.500 points (as opposed to 1.25%)

No add for being a condo

No add for investment

Total add-ons = 0.500 points

 

What if the borrower put down 30% purchased the condo for their primary residence and had a 799 credit score? Essentially there are no add-ons and the price of the loan would be the same if the borrower were purchasing a detached single family home.

 

As you can see in the first scenario with 20% down the cost to the investor is $21,000 more in the cost of the loan than the second scenario where the borrower will have 30% down and live in the property. (5.75 points = $23,000 less 0.50 points or $2,000).

 

Surely an investor is not going to pay $23,000 more in loan fees out of pocket. This is where the second part of tiered pricing comes in. When speaking about mortgages there is a trade off between the cost you can pay and the rate you can pay. Observe:

 

 

 

 

 

The teeter-totter above has the price of the loan on one side and the interest rate on the other side. If you want a lower rate then you will pay a higher price for the loan, if you want a lower price then you pay a higher rate for the loan. In our example above, the investor could get a rate of 4.25% and pay the 5.75 points for the loan, or could get an interest rate of 5.25% and pay only one point for the loan. His payment is higher by $242 per month ($1967 at 4.25% vs. $2209 at 5.25%) if he takes the higher rate, but he saves $19,000 in points.

 

The same scenario on a smaller scale occurs when you are purchasing your home. The you can reduce your cash to close by taking a higher interest rate, the rule of thumb is usually 0.125% in interest rate will reduce your costs by approximately one-half point (0.500%).

 

Using the $400,000 loan example for a primary residence, today our conforming rate for owner occupied purchase with 20% down and 740 credit score at cost of 1.25 points is 4.125%. The payment is $1939 per month and the loan cost is $5000. However, if you take a rate of 4.25% the cost will be 0.75 points, your payment goes up to $1968 ($29 per month) but your cost goes to $3000, a savings of $2000 in cash to close. If you took the lower rate and put the $29 saved per month in a coffee can it would take you almost six years to save the $2000 you would have saved at the time of your transaction had you taken the higher rate. Of course if you did take the higher rate after six years your total cost to purchase the home would be higher by $29 per month.

 

The question you need to answer is do you need the $2000 more today than you need $29 each month in the future?

 

What is tiered pricing? On one-hand it determines the price of your loan based on certain risk factors. On the other hand it allows you to trade more or less cash to close your transaction with a lower or higher monthly payment.

 

Confused? If so please do not hesitate to contact me to discuss your situation and rate options available for your purchase or refinance transaction.

 

Have a question? Ask me!

 

A couple of very important economic data releases this week. On Monday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released personal income, saving and spending data for December as well as the price index. There a bit of good and a bit of not so good in the report, with the good outweighing the not so good in impact on mortgage rates. Incomes increased a solid 0.4% in December against a price increase of only 0.1% (0.2% if food and energy taken out). The increase in income is very positive for economic growth and puts upward pressure on rates. Also putting pressure on rates to go up was a 0.4% increase in consumer spending following a revised 0.8% increase in spending in November from October. As consumer spending is approximately 65-70% of our economy increases point to stronger economic growth. The price index change is lower than expected at this stage of economic growth and a bit of downer in the report, and positive for rates. However, of greater concern was a drop in consumer saving to 2.4%, the lowest rate in thirteen years. While greater consumer spending is helpful for the economy, it is not very helpful if the increase is based on consumers dipping significantly into their savings for their purchases. Overall the report results are not positive for lower mortgage rates.

 

On Wednesday the Fed Open Market Committee—the group that determines what rates the Fed will charge member banks—announced no rate increase in January. This was entirely expected by everyone who follows the Fed and rates so no surprise mean no impact on rates. In the announcement the Fed indicated it feels inflation will increase to 2% at some point this year and stabilize at that level. “Solid” was how the FOMC described employment and business spending.  The announcement gave no reason to expect the Fed will not continue with its plan to raise rates three times in 2018, and the expectation is for a 0.25% increase in each hike. Should inflation and employment heat up further we could see a fourth hike added this year, or perhaps one of the hikes being 0.50% instead of 0.25%.

 

Strong, solid, very positive, all describe the employment report released this morning by the Labor Department. Non-farm payrolls increased 200,000 in January, following a revised 160,000 increase in December. The unemployment level remains at 4.1% and the participation rate is level at 62.7%. Average hourly earnings were another sign of strength in employment showing a 0.3% increase for the month and up 2.9% from January 2017. With the price index increasing 1.7% the gap between hourly pay increases and higher prices being over 1% is certainly good news for workers as their paychecks go further this year than last. The soft spot in the report is a decline in the average workweek from 34.5 hours to 34.3 hours. This is the first decline in sometime for the average workweek so it could be a one-off due to winter weather that impacted most of the country in January, we will see what next month’s report has to report to see if this is a negative and concerning trend. Overall the strength of new hires and higher wages are very positive and negative for mortgage rates.

 

Rates for Friday February 2, 2018: Conforming rates increase for the second week in a row and third time in four weeks and high-balance rates are up for the fourth Friday in a row. The positive economic news and growing momentum will continue to put upward pressure on rates. Lock in your rate when you can remains the advice from this mortgage expert.

 

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS LOCKED FOR 45 DAYS:

30 year conforming                                            4.1215%       Up 0.125

30 year high-balance conforming                       4.375%        Up 0.125%

 

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

Two weeks ago I wrote in this space how excited I was that the Philadelphia Eagles were playing in the NFC Championship. That excitement is more than doubled as they play in the Super Bowl on Sunday. This is their third trip to the Super Bowl and they are looking to win it for the first time (losing 27-10 to the Raiders in Super Bowl XV following 1980 season and 24-21 in Super Bowl XXXIX to Tom Brady and the Patriots following the 2004 season). The last time the Eagles won a championship was in 1960, so the fans could be described as long-suffering.

 

As is my hope with all big games, and little ones, my hope is that it is well played and determined not by one team playing poorly and making mistakes but by one team playing exceptionally well and deserving the victory. My bigger hope is that victorious team has millions of fans signing their fight song well into Sunday night. The same song that has been my ringtone for the past several weeks.

 

Fly Eagles Fly!

 

Dennis