Weekly Rate & Market Update 2-10-17

Question: Can I use my assets for income?

Answer: Possibly.

This question comes up from time to time with high net worth individuals who do not have a lot of income—perhaps they get retirement income or other payments that are not enough to qualify for a mortgage, but they have significant funds in investment accounts.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both have formulas to use asset accounts for income. The qualification process has several moving parts and I will see if I can clarify. Note that using assets for income is limited to owner occupied 1 and 2 unit properties with a maximum of 80% loan to value for a purchase or rate and term refinance (65% if taking cash out).

The first step is to determine if the account(s) that is being used for income qualifying is a retirement account or a “normal” account that is subject to taxes for capital gains, interest and dividend payments.

If the account is a retirement account, an IRA or 401(k) for example, then we must then determine if you have started taking annual distributions. If you are over 70 ½ then you are obligated to take minimum distributions based on tables provided by the IRS.

If you have already begun taking distributions then whatever amount you have already taken annually will be used for your income, unless you can show that an automatic payment of a certain amount has been set up and in place with your account holder. As well the account must have sufficient funds to show payments for five years. For example if you have an IRA with $500,000 and for the past two years you have taken out $24,000 then we will credit you for $2,000 per month in income.

If you have not yet begun taking distributions and are not yet obligated to do so then we apply a formula to your retirement account to calculate the amount used for income. First we determine if you will be assessed a 10% early withdrawal penalty by the IRS if you are under 59 ½ years old. Then we calculate if you will need any of the funds for down payment or closing. Then we determine if the funds are held in cash or stocks and mutual funds.

For simplicity sake let’s assume your account has $500,000 in it, you are 62 years old and the funds are fully invested in mutual funds, your funds for closing are coming from the sale of a current residence so you do not need the IRA for cash to close.

The first step is to multiple the balance by 70% to account for potential swings in the market in the future: 500,000 x .70 = $350,000.

We then divide the amount by 360 to get monthly income: 350,000 / 360 = $972.22 is the qualifying income.

What if your funds are in a “normal” account? First the funds must be seasoned for more than one year. So if you inherit a large sum of money or win the lottery you must wait to use the funds for qualifying income.

Then the same rules apply for qualifying, if funds are invested then use 70% of the balance then divide by 360 months. In some cases we have a client with a large amount of funds in cash as well as invested in this case we split the calculation.
Let’s assume you have $100,000 in cash and $400,000 invested. In this case we add the $100,000 to 70% of $400,000 = 100,000 + (400,000 x .70) = $380,000.

Divide by 360 and we get monthly income = 380,000 / 360 = $1055.56 per month.

If you or a family member is considering buying a new home, or needs to refinance their current home, and may be tight on income, give me a call and we can work through all the numbers, including assets, to determine if we can increase the qualifying income using retirement or other asset accounts.

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

Rates for Friday February 10, 2017: Very little economic news this week that impacts mortgage rates. Most of the movement in rates this week were tied to the equity markets as investors moved their money between bonds and stocks. There was some movement during the week but we end up this Friday flat from last Friday and the Friday before. Ah, some stability…

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

2-10-17

Our student from France, Mallory, is still with us and ready to take us on a Southern California tour. The kids have Monday off so this weekend the plan is to explore LA, possibly Venice Beach, Santa Monica Pier, Rodeo Drive, cruise down Sunset to Malibu, and then on Monday they will head up to Universal Studios while I recover back at work! I hope you have a great weekend wherever you are!

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 2-3-17

Question: Should I get a Home Equity Line of Credit, if so how does it work?

Answer: This question has come up frequently in the last few months, usually as part of a bigger question regarding remodeling your home and how to pay for it. Last January I discussed options for paying for a remodel of your current home, and encouraged you to weigh going through the remodel against buying the home you desire.

Those options are still there: new cash out mortgage, a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) or paying cash, or a combination.

Of the available options the most mysterious to many homeowners is the HELOC, what is it, how does it work? When looking for a HELOC what are the factors I should consider?

A HELOC works very much like a credit card. You are approved for a credit limit and you can use and pay down, and use and pay down and use…through what is known as the “draw period.” During this period your minimum payment is typically interest only. Interest is calculated by taking the published Prime Rate (lender will let you know which bank’s or publication’s Prime Rate it is using to establish your rate) and to the Prime Rate a margin will be added. If the draw period is not equal to the term of the credit line then when the draw period is up the ability to obtain funds from the HELOC is no more and the lender will generally fully amortize your payments for the remainder of the loan.

Let’s put some numbers to the explanation and make it a bit clearer for you:

You apply for and are approved for $100,000 HELOC. The lender says the terms are Prime + 1, the draw period if for ten years during which you must pay interest only on any outstanding balance and the total period of the loan is twenty years.

Currently the Prime Rate is 3.75% so the rate on any outstanding HELOC balance is 4.75%, until the Prime Rate changes at which point your rate will decrease (unlikely in short/medium term) or increase (very likely short/medium term).

You want to put in a new garage door and add cabinets to the garage, the cost is $10,000 and you decide to use your HELOC to pay for the work. After you take the funds out you get your statement for the first month and it shows you have a $10,000 balance and $90,000 still available for use. The rate is 4.75% on $10,000 so the interest due for the month is $39.58 (10,000 x 0.0475 = $475 for 12 month period, or $39.58 for the month) which is your minimum payment.

Having some additional funds you pay the interest plus another thousand dollars for a total of $1039.58. You do not use any more funds in the coming month so your statement shows a balance of $9,000, but right at the billing cycle the Federal Reserve raised their Fed Funds rate by 0.25%, as a result the Prime Rate also increased so your rate is now 5% (Prime = 4% + margin of 1%). Your account has accrued interest of $37.50 which is the minimum payment due and you have available credit of $91,000. You pay just the interest this month as you use additional funds you have for the month on fixtures, etc for the refinished garage.

Having finished the garage you realize that the exterior paint doesn’t look as good as it did before the new garage door so you hire a painter to paint and patch your home and the cost is $18,000 which you put on your equity line.

Your monthly statement comes and it shows you have an outstanding balance of $27,000, the Fed raised rates again by 0.25% so your rate is 5.25%, the interest you have accrued for the month is $118.13 which is the minimum payment due. You have available credit of $73,000.

And so it goes for the ten year draw period. You borrow the money on the HELOC, make your minimum interest payments some months and others when you have more funds available make payments to lower the principal balance. During the period rates fluctuate up and down and your monthly interest rate adjusts accordingly.

At the end of the ten year period you have a balance of $62,000 on the HELOC and the Prime Rate is 6.25%, your interest rate is Prime + 1 so your rate is 7.25%. The bank has informed you sixty days before that your draw period is coming to an end and in two months you loan will become fully amortized for the remaining ten years of the loan.

To amortize the loan the lender will take your outstanding balance, the number of months left on the HELOC and the current interest rate and calculate what the payment would need to be to make the same payment every month so at the end of 120 monthly payments your balance will be zero.

With $62,000 balance and a 7.25% rate your monthly payment the first month of no longer having the interest only option is $727.89, of which $374.58 is interest and $353.30 is principal. You make the minimum payment.

Coincidentally once again, the Feds raise the rate on the same day of your billing cycle to 6.5%, you HELOC rate is 7.5% and your balance is now $61,646.70 and you have 119 months left to pay off the balance. Your payment for the month is $735.89, a bit higher due to the rate increase.

For the next ten years your payment will adjust depending on the Prime Rate and your outstanding balance and the number of months you have left on your HELOC before it is to be paid in full.

Even if we were not coming off years of historically low interest rates, when getting any type of adjustable loan you should assume your interest rate will go up during the life of the loan. What may be a comfortable payment today may not be next month, year or in five years. As well since the rate is adjustable you should pay down the principal as much as you can as soon as you can to mitigate future rate increases.

Most banks and credit unions offer HELOCs, so what factors should you consider when looking for a HELOC and considering where to apply?

The primary factor is what is the margin over the Prime Rate for the interest rate you will be paying? Does the margin vary depending on how much you apply for, i.e. is the rate lower for $150,000 credit line as opposed to $75,000? Does the margin vary if the combined total of my current mortgage and my new HELOC exceeds a certain percentage of my home’s value, i.e. is the rate higher if the combined totals of the loans exceeds 80% of the value of my home?

Next what are the terms of repayment? Is the draw period short or long? After the draw period is up is the remaining balance amortized or can you still pay interest only? How long is the period the loan may be amortized?

Finally, what is the cost up front for the HELOC and what, if any, is the annual maintenance fee?

For many clients calling over the past few years inquiring about HELOCs I have suggested they contact their credit union instead of a major bank. While Stratis Financial does have some equity lines available I find the terms for many/most credit unions are better than what we can offer, and better than any of the major banks in the region. Particularly in the amount they will lend as a percentage of the value of your home and typically with the margin over Prime as well. If you don’t belong to a credit union research them anyway as these days many credit unions allow members beyond what their traditional charter called for—for instance I have accounts with a credit union that used to be exclusively for tele-communications workers, and in the past have had accounts with local teachers credit union, even though I have never been either.

I think equity lines are a very good financial tool to have handy if used wisely. They provide access to relatively cheap funds and due to their nature you can control your balances within your financial abilities.

My biggest piece of advice with having a Home Equity Line of Credit is to concentrate on paying down principal as soon as you are able so you are not caught in a difficult financial position many years down the road.

Finally, if you do have a HELOC and sell your home it must be paid off with proceeds from the sale, a lender will not let you carry it to your next home. As well if you are refinancing your current primary mortgage the total loan limit of the HELOC will be a factor in determining ability to qualify and possibly your interest.

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Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

December saw moderate gains in personal wages and salaries, increasing 0.3% after being flat in November. While wages had a moderate increase personal consumption so a more robust increase of 0.5% from November, mostly for durable goods—especially autos. With higher consumption increasing more than wages it is not surprise that the personal savings rate dropped for the month. For the year the personal price index increased a modest 1.6%, well below the target for the Federal Reserve. Overall the news is neutral for mortgage rates.

The monthly employment data for January was released today and new jobs for the month strongly exceeded expectations, with 227,000 jobs added for the month. The total exceed the monthly average of 187,000 for 2016. The best news in the report was that the private sector added 237,000—which means government employment decreased—and the participation rate increased. Hourly earnings increased only 0.1% for the month and the unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 4.8% as more people sought work. The news is somewhat mixed in that the number of new hires is good news but not keeping up with new job seekers tempers the positive. Overall the news is somewhat positive for rates as the data would suggest the Fed may not increase the Fed Funds rate at its March meeting.

Rates for Friday February 3, 2017: Still some inter-day instability in rates as investors try to process all the information and possible ramifications coming out of Washington, but a little less than in prior week(s). Week to week we are flat from last Friday as rates show resistance at the 4.125% level we have bounced off of three times in the past seven weeks. Looking ahead I maintain my advice to lock in your rate when you can through your rate period.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-30-16

Very busy weekend for the Smith family that should be a lot of fun. As many of you know our family moved to Brussels, Belgium after my freshman year in high school and I spent my sophomore through senior years in Belgium graduating from the International School of Brussels. Tonight Leslie and I are hosting a gathering of other ISB alumni in the Southern California region. We are expecting to have Mr.Vantieghen, the Belgian Consul General in Los Angeles make an appreance along with ISB Raiders who attended the school from the 1960s to more recent years. We have plenty of excellent Belgian beer on ice and look for to reminiscing about our years in Brussels.

Tomorrow we welcome to our home a student from a town outside of Paris who will be with us for the next two weeks. Our French visitor is about the same age as our oldest daughter, and no surprise they have been texting and Snapchatting each other with regularity. We look forward to sharing our home, city and region with her and learning about her life in France—as well as dusting off our French vocabulary and ability to coherently communicate.

Our Super Bowl will be a teenage affair as our daughters have invited several friends to our home to ostensibly watch the game, but more importantly to meet Mallory so she is more comfortable when she starts walking the halls of Poly High on Monday. No word yet on whether she is a Patriots or Falcons fan!

So the Super Bowl will be a bit of a background component to our Sunday, and not having any significant affinity for either team that is just fine by me.

I hope you have a great weekend and are entertained as much as you desire by the game on Sunday. My predictions have not been great so I’ll make one more—the Patriots in a very high scoring game (over 70 total points) and covering the 3 point spread Vegas has put out.

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 1-20-17

Question: What were rates when past Presidents took office?

Answer: This is a question I asked myself this week.

Unfortunately my records for the Weekly Rate & Market Update only go back to 2005 due to a computer melt down in late 2004 that resulted in the loss of a lot of past files at that time.

Fortunately President George W. Bush took office in January of 2005 so we can go back three inaugurations and compare rates. In doing my research I discovered that while the Weekly Rate & Market Update started in 2002, the Question of the Week made its debut on September 26, 2008 with “If I have a loan payment with Washington Mutual what should I do?” This was an inquiry from a few clients that morning since the night before federal regulators pushed/coerced/forced Chase to take over failing WAMU—then and still the biggest bank failure in history. Chase paid the FDIC $1.9 billion for the “right” to acquire WAMUs assets.

Back to rate history.

When George W. Bush, our 43rd President, took the oath of office on January 20, 2005 the 30 year fixed rate was at 5.375% (using same criteria quoted below). In his first year in office the lowest rate was 5.125% in late June and early July, the highest was 6.125% in early November.

When our 44th President, Barrack Obama, placed his hand on the Bible for his first oath on January 20, 2008 the 30 year conforming rate was 4.875%, four years later after his re-election the rate had dropped to near historic lows of 3.375%. During President Obama’s first term the lowest rate was 4.5% in late November 2009 and the high was 5.375% in June. In the first year of his second term the low 3.25%, reached six weeks, and the high was 4.5% in July and September of 2013.

Today when our 45th President Donald Trump swore to preserve, defend and uphold the Constitution the conforming fixed rate is 4.125%.

What will our low and high rates for 2017 be during the first year of Trump’s presidency? If we knew with certainty the answer to that question, and the timing, we would be able to greatly increase our liquid assets.

Regardless of what happens to interest rates the rest of this year, and the next four, it is my sincere hope that the rancor, partisanship and divisiveness shown the past few years is able to be put aside by the overwhelming majority of Americans and their elected representatives. E pluribus unum, out of many, one—always the strength of America, what weakens our nation is when the many choose to remain separate and point out differences instead of joining on commonalities.

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

Presidents come and go but the economy keeps going in one direction or the other. While the world has been focused on Washington D.C. and politics this week, the economic analysts still put out data reflecting where our economy has been and where it may be going. The Consumer Price Index for December showed a 0.2% increase from November and prices are up 2.1% from December 2015—not overly positive nor overly negative for mortgage rates. Energy price increases were balanced with a decline in food prices and the data gives not a lot of support for another increase in the Fed Funds rate, but does not give a lot of support for the Fed to not raise rates again later in the year.

Rates for Friday January 20, 2017: After three weeks of stable rates we saw a bump this week, mostly for technical trading purposes as some investors sold off to secure some profits. Looking ahead I see us in a range between 4.25% at the top and 3.875% at the bottom for the next several weeks for the conforming fixed rate.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.125% Up 0.125%
30 year high-balance conforming 4.25% Up 0.125%
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-30-16

Now that everything about the election that started almost two years ago most Americans will quickly pivot their interest to one national event, that while divisive also brings us all together: the NFL playoffs and who will be in the Super Bowl in two weeks. With four excellent teams and quarterbacks going at it this weekend sports fans should have two great games on Sunday to select who will play in Houston on February 5th. I have a rooting interest in the Packers based on a year long pool in which they were my first draft pick, but even without that interest I think the playoff experienced Packers will win in Atlanta. As for the game in New England I am also picking the visiting team to win. Yes Brady and the Patriots have more experience than the Steelers, but their defense hasn’t been that great this year and Brady has been really good but not as good as he has been in the past.

I should comment that I don’t really gamble because I am not right enough to make a living at guessing the outcome of sporting contests—regardless of who you root for know that someone who is diametrically opposed to you politically is also rooting for that team, something to build and repair a relationship that may have been dinged or damaged this past year.

Enjoy the games and have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 1-13-17

Question: How different is your job when helping a client with a refinance versus a purchase?

Answer: This question came up in conversation with some real estate agents who find themselves subject to greatly increased solicitation from lender representatives in the past several weeks looking for referrals.

Why the increase in solicitations? Because interest rates have increased slowing down the volume of mortgage refinance applications causing many lenders who have been answering phones taking refinances having phones that are not ringing. A great source of business for mortgage originators is real estate agents, the foundation for my business as well as many other “old timers,” so with a drop in refinance business….

Back to our question, how different is my job when working with a client refinancing a current home as opposed to working with a client purchasing a home?

Very different. Very, very, very different.

At the basics there is little difference. Collect personal and financial information on client, make sure the guidelines are met, process, submit, approve and fund the mortgage.

Where the differences start to appear however is all the variables that have to be considered, managed and solved for when working with a client purchasing a property.

Before you purchase a home we will want to make sure you can afford it and be able to successfully close the transaction. Are there items on your credit report that will require additional work that may delay an escrow? Are you funds for down payment and closing costs available and in the bank? Did you have large non-work related deposit(s) we need to account for? Is your income verifiable and eligible for consideration, especially if self-employed or have significant overtime or bonuses? Do you own a home now? Does it have to be sold for you to purchase your new home? This is part of what gets us through the pre-approval process.

The pre-approval information and any challenges we will be keeping an eye on must be communicated to your real estate agent so s/he will be aware and we can properly strategize not only price and loan amount but also timing.

When you find a home you wish to buy you will write an offer and naturally want it accepted. This will require a strong pre-approval package and the ability to communicate to the agent representing the seller (the listing agent) confidence in our ability to close your mortgage and therefore a successful close to escrow.

Once your offer is accepted we now have a firm deadline to meet which means managing timing for appraisal, loan processing, submission and approval. Coordinating final conditions and communicating timing to the agents, escrow and title companies to name just a few.

This is all if everything goes well. What if the seller has an issue on the home they are buying and we face a possible delay in closing? The appraiser discovers a problem with the property that will need to be repaired before we close? Could this have been prevented with proper questioning of the agents before we order the appraisal and corrective measures taken? What if there is language in the offer or counter-offer that could trigger more conditions from an underwriter? What if your buyer falls out of escrow delaying your closing? What if a tax lien pops up through title during escrow?

There are hundreds of “what-if” scenarios that can come up during a purchase transaction, many we have not yet seen but most we have seen and successfully handled through the years based on thousands and thousands of purchase transactions.

At the foundation for the differences between a refinance and purchase transaction is the communication. For starters we go from communicating primarily with our client and escrow to adding at a minimum two real estate agents, possibly more if there are other homes up or down stream from our transaction. That may not seem like much, however the communication between ourselves and the agents is critical to a smooth transaction and ability to solve problems that may pop up later in escrow as everyone has built a level of trust and confidence.

On paper it may not seem like there is a lot of difference, but experienced agents will let you know there is a tremendous difference in working with a lender who has experience with purchase mortgage transactions versus one who does not.

Whenever we get a call from a buyer in escrow who is having challenges closing their transaction with their lender it pains me that they have gone through the process and expense and not being able to get to closing. Had they called us before they started they could have avoided the headaches, frustration, stress and potential costs.

Buying a home is not the time to “try him out,” there is too much at stake for you and the seller. Make a call to someone who has experience and proven ability to assist you with your purchase transactions. (By the way, coming up on my 30th anniversary being licensed I have just a bit of that experience!)

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

The big news in residential real estate this week was the reduction of the annual Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) for FHA mortgages that close on or after January 27, 2017. The MIP for loans under $625,500 with minimum down has dropped from 0.85 points (0.85% or 85 basis points) to 0.55 points (on $400,000 FHA loan the monthly payment drops from $283 per month to $183 per month, $100 per month or $1200 per year). For loans over $625,500 the MIP drops from 1.05 points to 0.60 points ($500,000 the monthly MIP drops from $438 to $250, a savings of $188 per month, or about $2250 per year). The Upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium remains at 1.75% of the loan amount that is usually financed and added to the loan amount (for $400,000 this amount is $7000, for $500,000 it is $8750).

The final data for Producer Prices in 2016 were released this week and the news is mixed. Prices for wholesalers rose 0.3% from November and were up 1.6% from December 2015. Both numbers fairly benign and below what the Fed would like to see for economic growth. Food and energy were both very volatile in 2015. Food prices increased 0.7% in December but were down 1.1% from the prior year. Energy prices overall were up 2.6% in December, led by a 7.8% spike in gasoline, year over year energy prices climbed 5.9%. With overall prices under 2% growth the data is neutral for mortgage rates and gives little support to inflation in the near future.

How was your holiday shopping season? If you were a national retailer it wasn’t very great. Retail sales in December were a pretty decent 0.6% gain from November’s sales, however…take out auto sales and December holiday sales were only 0.2% above November’s take away autos and gas and there was no increase. This news is somewhat friendly for mortgage rates as it shows a slow-down in expected consumer spending (accounts for approximately 65-70% of economy) for what should be the busiest retails sales month of the year.

Rates for Friday January 13, 2017: Let’s hear it for stability! After a bit of a dip earlier in the week and rebound yesterday rates end the week at the same place they did on the last Friday of 2016. After the run up from the election to mid-December a few weeks of no change is quite welcome. Looking ahead we should stay in a tight range around the current rates for the near term.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-30-16

An interesting week coming up. On Monday we celebrate Martin Luther King’s birthday and his contributions to our nation, on Friday we celebrate the peaceful transition of power for the 45th time in our nation’s history. After a contentious, ugly, divisive atmosphere in the media, on social media and at many family dinner tables perhaps everyone can take this week to reflect on Dr. King’s message and from where our nation has come from his historic speech on The Mall in Washington D.C. in August 1963.

As I do every year on the Friday Weekly Rate & Market Update before Martin Luther King Day I encourage everyone to take about twenty minutes out of your schedule to watch Dr. King’s most famous speech. Watch as he goes from somewhat hesitant and stilted into a beautiful oratory rhythm that has moved millions since that hot summer day.

Click here for “I Have A Dream” and please share with other.

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 1-6-17

Question: No question this week as we are finishing up our vacation week in Scottsdale

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Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

December’s employment report is mixed. Only 156,000 new jobs (144,000 private sector) were created in December, which is low. However those who are working saw a 0.4% increase in wages with year over year wages up 2.9%, the highest year over year increase since the end of the recession. The news is neither rate friendly or hostile.

Rates for Friday January 6, 2017: Rates start 2017 where they ended 2016. Some large swings inter-week but as we get to Friday we are experience some welcome calm in the rates.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-30-16

I hope everyone is having a good start to the New Year. We are in Scottsdale for what has become our annual pilgrimage for some R&R. An unexpected guest for the week has been a cold bug hitting Leslie and I, but it has not hindered us—and at least we have our 2017 cold out of the way!

All the best to you in 2017 and beyond,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 12-30-16

Question: What were the highs and lows of mortgage rates in 2016?

Answer: As you can see by the chart below we are ending 2016 with interest rates just below the highest rates we saw all year.

The year started with conforming rates starting to fall from near 2015 highs, dropping from 3.875% to 3.75% (using criteria I have used for my chart quotes for over 15 years as described below) in six weeks. After a brief pop up into March rates remained very steady through June before hitting the lows of 2016 in July at 3.25%. From July until election week rates were either 3.25% or 3.375%. Post-election rates quickly climbed to their highs of the year, reached two weeks ago at 4.125%.

We end 2016 with the conforming fixed rate only 0.125% higher than it was on January 1st, but 0.75% higher than our lowest rates of the year. We end 2016 with the 30 year fixed rate at its highest since September 2014.

If I had to use one word to characterize mortgage rates in 2016 I would use “stable.” Absent eight weeks when we saw rates drop steadily (five weeks at start of year) or increase steadily (three weeks in November) rates held steady within a quarter-percent range from February to November.

If I have to use a word to characterize what I think rates will do in 2017 I will use “inconsistent.” With a transition of leadership in Washington that includes not just the President but the heads of every regulatory agency, one party control of the legislative and executive branches, international turmoil through the transition period with tensions increased in the Middle East and with Russia, an economy that appears to be strengthening amidst an international economy that is struggling, I see little that would create an environment for “stable” rates.

Instability in the economy, global relations and politics generally means lower interest rates as investors flee to the safety of fixed return investments like mortgages. However positive economic outlooks lead to higher rates. Rates will be effected by whether investors see more of a threat from external forces than positive economic impacts from policies and regulations.
[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

Rates for Friday December 30, 2016: We close 2016 with rates dropping for the first Friday September 23rd when rates had their last day on the low for the year. Flight to safety is the primary cause for the drop. There was scant economic news to impact rates this week, but plenty of political and international relations issues that did have an impact. With tensions ramped up between the United States and Israel and the United States and Russia investors have been moving from stocks to bonds to end the year. I see no lessening of the tensions for several weeks or more which could lead to lower rates—“could.”

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Down 0.125%
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Down 0.125%
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-30-16

Thank you to everyone who helped make 2016 another great year at Stratis Financial. We are very grateful for the opportunity to help so many families with their mortgage needs. For those who put their own reputation on the line by referring us to family, friends, co-workers, clients, etc we are extremely thankful for your trust and confidence.

We are into our eighteenth year at Stratis Financial and we know we would not be without the support of our wonderful clients and business partners who continue to return for their mortgage needs and refer others we can assist with our expertise and service.

Cheers to a wonderful 2017 to you and your family,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 12-23-16

Question: What should I do if I think someone stole my social security number?

Answer: This question came up this week when my father in-law had someone break into his home and steal financial documents, including tax returns and his passport. What to do?

Thankfully in the age of the internet it is pretty easy to get contact information for various notifications you need to make to ensure, or try to ensure, your protected from further theft using you social security number, bank or credit card information. Below I have a summary of contact information for various agencies you may want to notify.

The first thing you should do is notify your local police department or sheriff’s office and request an officer come out to take a report—you may need this report for insurance claim or some financial institutions.

Second call your bank and let them know what has happened, chances are they will want to close our account and open a new one. This means you will need to notify whomever you receive automatic deposits from, such as your employer or if retired the social security administration or financial institution that may be making transfers from your retirement account to your checking account. As well if you have any automatic payments for your mortgage, auto payment, utility bills, etc you will need to notify those companies if they pull your payments, or you will need to set up new transactions if you push the payments.

Then contact your credit card companies, they too will cancel existing accounts and issue new cards—same as above, if you have any automatic charges to your credit card(s) for services such as the gym, alarm company, insurance, Amazon, etc you will need to change the payment with those providers.

The bank and credit card notifications can be pretty simply, now comes a bit more work.

Contact one of the credit bureaus and they will place a fraud alert on your social security number and alert the other credit bureaus of the alert, here are the numbers for TransUnion and Experian, as well the link to file on-line:

Trans Union: 1-800-680-7289
Experian: 1-888-397-3742

You will want to notify the IRS so they are aware your social security has been taken and be on alert for someone using your number to file taxes and possibly get a refund sent to them at a different address or more likely a direct deposit of the refund into a bank account. You can file on-line with the IRS at this link: IRS Identity Protection or call them at 800- 908-4490.

The social security administration is a bit more challenging, waits on the phone can be very long, up to an hour, or you may visit the local office. The main concern retirees will have with the social security administration is the thief contacting SSA to change where the monthly social security check is sent, or setting up an on-line account. If an on-line account is set up, or changed, SSA will notify you via the mail as to the change. Contact the SSA to let them know about the theft and that you will not be setting up nor changing any on-line account.

If like my father in-law your passport is also stolen you need to file with the information with the State Department with a specific form, this form is available on line to print and send in, or you can complete the form on line and submit electronically at https://pptform.state.gov/ or you may call them at 877-487-2778.

Unfortunately there are those in our communities who have the desire to steal from others rather than earn it themselves, and we must protect ourselves as best we can. Try to keep your financial information in a safe and secure location, do not throw statements in the trash or recycle bins but shred them and keep an eye on your neighbors homes and hope they are doing the same for you.

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

Now that the Fed rate increase is old news, some traditional and relatively boring economic news was released this week. Existing home sales climbed in November along with interest rates, perhaps the rising rates knocked some who were waiting for lower rates off the fence when rates did climb. There is not a lot of supply so not only have rates going up but so are prices, those who have been waiting to purchase are paying higher monthly payments and prices for their new home. This news is semi-negative for mortgage rates.

Every revision is higher for 3rd Quarter GDP. With the third and final revision the GDP is estimated to have grown 3.5% in the quarter ending September 30th. It is the strongest quarterly growth since the 3rd quarter of 2014. Consumer spending pulled the GDP up also pulling up prices 1.4% over 2015. The news supports the Fed’s decision to increase rates last week and if future quarters retain the growth of over 3% then the chances of future rate hike from the Fed is very high. The news is unfriendly for interest rates.

Rates for Friday December 23, 2016: With a low volume trading week rates have stayed flat from last Friday, a welcome break in the increases we have seen. Will this be our ceiling in the current market? We have two short weeks back to back which can lead to tight trading so we may not see if we have leveled off for another two or three weeks. In the meantime my advice holds to lock in your rate lock as soon as you can to protect against future rate hikes.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.25% Flat
30 year FHA 3.50% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-23-16

I hope Santa is kind to everyone and everyone is kind to each other through not only the holidays but also through 2017. Too much vitriol and empty rhetoric that has caused strains and breaks within families and friendships this past year. Let’s all stay focused on what we can do to be better husbands, wives, children, neighbors and friends.

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 12-16-16

Question: Does the Fed raising interest rates Wednesday affect me?

Answer: The last time we answered this question was last December, the last time the Fed increased its Federal Funds Rate. The answer on how the rate hike by the Fed earlier this week is no different than the answer when the Fed raised the fed funds rate last December.

How much will the rate hike affect you? Depending on the type of debt you have either a little or not a lot in the short term, longer term based on the Fed comments with the rate increase you could be impacted more in 2017 and beyond.

The actual increase by the Fed was from between 0.25% to 0.50% to now being between 0.50% to 0.75%. So the Fed is still not charging member banks 1.00% to borrow money.

Virtually none of your consumer, or if you are a business owner your commercial, debt is directly impacted by the Fed rate since you do not borrow from the Fed. However the rate that is generally tied to the Fed rate may impact you: the Prime Rate.

Contrary to common belief, there is no official “prime rate”, each bank may set its own but generally the consensus moves all banks rates to the same number. The Prime Rate is the rate that banks charge their best and most credit worthy clients. It almost always moves in the same direction and in the same amount that the Fed funds rate moves. Once the Fed moves the funds rate banks immediately increase their Prime Rate, why charge 3.5% when everyone else is charging and getting 3.75%?

The increase on Wednesday of the funds rate led to an increase of 0.25% of the Prime Rate from 3.50% to 3.75%. This was only the second increase in the Prime Rate since 2006, with the last increase coming in December 2015 from 3.25% to 3.50% and the prior increase was June 2006 when the Prime Rate moved from 8.00% to 8.25%. In June 2006 not only did the Prime Rate hit a cyclical peak, being the highest since 2001, but peaking were also housing prices, stock markets and GDP before the Great Recession.

Those consumers who are most immediately impacted by the increase in the Prime Rate are those who have lines of credit, more specifically for homeowners, those who have Home Equity Lines of Credit. Almost every HELOC interest rate is tied to the Prime Rate, either Prime plus a margin, minus a margin or just plain Prime. So when the Prime Rate increased on Wednesday by 0.25% so too did the rate you are paying on your HELOC. This means your monthly payment is increasing accordingly.

Some consumer credit cards are also tied to the Prime Rate, in which case the rate you pay for your Visa or MasterCard will also increase, resulting in an increase in your minimum monthly payment.

The net monetary impact is not tremendous to most people. If you owe $100,000 on your HELOC and your rate is equal to prime your minimum payment has increased from $292 per month to $313, a $21 increase.

Longer term those who may be impacted are those who still have adjustable rate mortgages. Slowly the Fed hike can begin to move the benchmark rates that are used for ARMs, those being the LIBOR or U.S. short term Treasury notes. It is important to note that these rates move independently of the Fed and also banks’ prime rates, however as the rate environment increases these rates will follow. This also means that the cost to maintain government debt, federal, state and local bonds will be increasing, meaning it will take more tax dollars to pay the interest on borrowed money.

As for fixed rate mortgages the impact is negligible for the current increase. With all the talk, speculation and predictions of a rate increase by the Fed the increase was priced into mortgage rates some time ago by investors purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). As anticipated the immediate reaction in the MBS markets following the increase was a jump in MBS prices (lower rates).

Looking forward, however, there is an impact on fixed mortgage rates as the Fed announced it anticipates three more rate hikes in 2017 with each increase being 0.25%. Because of this announcement investors will start pricing these anticipated increases which will put upward pressure on all interest rates, including mortgage rates. Baring an economic downturn (which I am on the record predicting for around the middle of 2017) mortgage rates probably have seen their floor this past year.

If you have a HELOC the then rate increases next year will raise the Prime Rate basis for your interest rate from 3.50% to 4.25%, increasing the repayment on $100,000 from $313 per month to $354 per month.

One other impact of the rate hike for consumers, you should see a slight bump in the rate your bank pays on your savings or money market account—perhaps paying up to a full one percent, one and a half?

Looking forward rates on consumer debt for credit cards and auto loans will see increases with the increase in the Prime Rate and rates in the Treasury and mortgage markets.

So to paraphrase that great writer, overall the Fed hike is much ado about nothing in the short term, a small increase in some people’s payments but for most no impact at all.

Have a question? [email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

The Fed news casts a long shadow over other economic news released this week, but even in the shadows the data released this week shone a bit given its significance. Both the Producer and Consumer Price Indexes for November were released. PPI increased 0.4% for the month and 1.3% for the year, exceeding expectations and stronger than we have seen in several months. CPI lagged increasing only 0.2% after 0.4% increase in October but year over year the increase is 1.7%, a big part of the increase being housing costs. The news for the price increases are mortgage rate unfriendly as they show inflation momentum which supports higher rates in the future to temper inflation.

Retail sales had interesting data for November. Overall growth was only 0.1%, not a good number. The total number was dragged down by auto sales which fell 0.5% for the month, but a lot of strength from restaurants which rose 0.8% for their biggest gain since February. Also strong were furniture and furnishings. The latter two data sectors are important as they are generally discretionary spending showing consumers feel confident by spending beyond essentials. Overall the big number is positive for mortgage rates, however the details of the report is not as positive forecasting possible strengthening consumer spending.

Rates for Friday December 16, 2016: I have a service that texts me the movement of Fannie Mae Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) throughout the day. A normal day may have updates every hour as schedule, up 5 basis points (bps), down 4 bps, small normal movements of a calm market. Since the election we have had some days where the message is up 20 bps, down 16 bps, up 19 bps, etc. indicating rates moving up and down. Wednesday following the Fed rate hike announcement I was in my weekly Rotary lunch meeting and my phone was lighting up, as the MBS fell being down 21 bps for the day, down 43 bps, down 52 bps, 64 bps, 79 bps, 86 bps, finally closing down 89 basis points for the day. Wow, a run straight down meaning rates shooting up through the day based not on the Fed rate hike which was priced into the market but because of the announcement of more hikes in 2017. For those waiting for lower rates that ship has probably sailed. I have missed this market completely. I thought we would see a flight to safety with a Trump election due to uncertainty but the exact opposite has happened as investors flee the safety of bonds and mortgages and have been buying equities. Looking forward there no longer appears to be any large correction to lower mortgage rates short of a possible recession in the future. Rates are up 0.75% in the past six weeks.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.125% Up 0.125%
30 year high-balance conforming 4.25% Up 0.125%
30 year FHA 3.50% Up 0.25%
30 year FHA high-balance 4.00% Up 0.25%

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-16-16

A celebratory week for us. First, tomorrow is our annual company party. I am so proud to work with the great people at Stratis Financial. The opportunity to celebrate another great year of helping families with their mortgage needs while working with professionals who are the best in the business and do so in a relaxed fun atmosphere is something for which I will always be grateful.

Speaking of grateful another, and more personal and special, celebration will be held next Wednesday as Leslie has a somewhat significant birthday. Not less than a few years ago we had a big celebration for her 39th birthday and have been celebrating anniversaries since. This summer we through another big celebration for early celebration for this birthday since it is hard to have a party four days before Christmas. I am so grateful to have been able to say, Happy Birthday to my wonderful wife for what will be the 23rd time. Happy Birthday Leslie, so proud to be your husband!

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 12-9-16

Question: How come my lender sent me a notice that my payment is going up, don’t I have a fixed rate mortgage?

Answer: This is a rather lengthy answer today, but very important information to anyone who has purchased a home in the last year, or have someone close to them that has purchased recently, as it involves the payment of taxes and how screwy it can and does get is your taxes are collected and paid by your lender.

Earlier this week I sent out a reminder that for those who own property in California tomorrow is the deadline to pay your property taxes for the 1st half of the tax year without a late fee. Semi-annually when I send out this reminder email I receive inquiries from some property owners who have an impound account for taxes with their lender ensuring their taxes will be paid, or from new homeowners wondering what is going on because of a notice from the lender regarding their taxes.

What is going on? Why might you have received a notice that the lender is raising your monthly payment?

A look at how property taxes and notifications work:

In California your property taxes are based on the purchase price of your home, this sets the base tax rate for the state. On top of this base tax are taxes for the county and city, and sometimes specific location in a city, in which your property is located. For instance in my neighborhood in Long Beach we have the base state tax, base tax for Los Angeles County, then additional taxes that were voted into place for city college district, K-12 school district, LA County parks, emergency services, City of Long Beach special assessments, etc, etc. All the taxes for the various government agencies and propositions passed by voters are put on the tax bill for the fiscal year running from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017.

In October the tax bill is mailed with a breakdown of the total amount due and it includes two coupons with half the amount due on each coupon. The first payment needs to be paid by December 10th or there is a late fee. The second payment needs to be paid by April 10th or there is a late fee. If your taxes are not paid by July 1st you are in default.

The amount that is due is based on the assessed value of the home prepared in July by the assessors of the various counties. The tax rolls are finalized in September and the bill is mailed out in October. So what happens when you purchase a home between the time of the value is assessed and the tax bill is mailed out? This is where your high school algebra comes in handy.

The house you are buying for $500,000 and the current owners purchased the home in 2006 and their current tax bill is based on an assessed value of $400,000. Let’s assume the industry standard of 1.25% of assessed value is the tax rate.

The current owner has an annual tax obligation of $5000 per year ($400,000 x 1.25%). Your tax bill will be $6250 per year.

You closed escrow on your home on September 30th 2015 and set up an impound account with the lender to pay your property taxes. The lender collects $520.83 per month for taxes ($6250 per year).

The tax bill is sent, a copy to you and the actual bill to the lender, the amount owed by December 10th is $2500—because the tax bill is showing the assessed value of the prior owner since the County Assessor has not had time to change the assessment and the corresponding tax obligation. Because the tax bill mailed in October covers the entire fiscal year your lender sends another $2500 to the county in April. So the lender has paid the taxes due, $5000, but has collected $6250 from you based on the estimated taxes that would be due based on your purchase price.

Seeing that they have $1250 excess funds in your tax impound account the lender issues you a check for the overage since they are not allowed to retain the excess collected.

Typically at this time the lender will send a notice reducing your monthly payment by $104.17 ($1250 over collected divided by twelve months). Also typically there is poor communication as to a) why you received the check and b) why your payment has been lowered.

In October 2016 the lender gets the tax bill for 2016-2017 for $6250 paid in two installments of $3125 each, one due by December 10th and the other by April 10th. The lender pays the $3125 due and notices that there is a deficit in your impound account. Why? Because the lender refunded you the excess collected for the prior year’s tax bill AND reduced your monthly payment to reflect the taxes due on that prior year’s tax bill.

So the lender sends you a notice that it will be increasing your monthly payment by $208 per month for the next 12 months and then it will reduce by $104 and remain at that payment until/if the tax obligation changes in the future. The reason for the increase is to a) collect for the actual amount that should be collected based on your tax obligation based on your purchase price of $6250 per year and b) to make up the deficit created when the lender lowered your payment earlier in the year since its program thinks your taxes should be $5000 per year based on the prior tax bill. Confused? Exactly.

Compounding the confusion is that you will receive a Supplemental Tax Bill from the County for $1250 for the difference in taxes collected versus taxes due from the purchase date to the end of the tax year. Coincidentally matching the funds sent to you by the lender earlier in the year.

So what can you do?

First, when you receive the refund check from the lender save it as you will need the funds in the future for your supplemental tax bill.

Second, when the lender lowers you payment to reduce the impound account collection for taxes contact them and inquire if they can keep the impound collection the same as when the loan funded, explaining that later in the year the tax bill will be higher and you want to make sure they have the necessary funds to pay the higher amount and not increase your payment in the future.

Third, if they will not keep your payment the same then budget the same amount for your total monthly payment that we estimated at closing and put the additional funds the lender is not collecting into a savings account—and do not touch the funds because….

Fourth, when the lender notifies you that there is a deficit and they are raising your payment to collect the deficit over the next twelve months you can let them know you have the amount of the deficit saved and wish to mail them a check for the deficit and your payment will adjust to the original estimated payment from when we closed and no more.

It can get complicated, confusing and very frustrating when you are getting these notices, changes, money back, money due. If you get any unusual notice, money or request from your lender call me and we can go through your situation and best practice to ensure minimal financial impact in the future. When we provide your payment estimate during the application process and especially with loan docs the payment we provide for your mortgage (principal and interest) your hazard insurance and property taxes is pretty accurate as to what you should be paying. If the lender over-collects (or in some market under-collects but that is another long explanation for when prices are declining) your taxes keep in mind that in the future more taxes will have to be paid. And they will be paid by you.

This type of scenario is why I prefer clients not have tax impounds unless they are required to by the lender due to the type of mortgage product we are using.

If you have not paid your property taxes yet do so today or tomorrow—every county has ability for you to make payment on-line, it is how I make my payments bi-annually and encourage you to do so as well to ensure your taxes are paid on time.

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

Slow new week for economic data. Perhaps the most important data was the release of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan. The Sentiment Index climbed from 93.8 from last month to 98.0, one-tenth away from the post-recession high reached one year ago. Cited by those survey is expectations of new economic policies in the coming year with the changeover in Washington that they see as the biggest positive and increase in consumer sentiment. The news is interest rate unfriendly as higher consumer sentiment can/should lead to higher consumer spending, which leads to greater GDP growth and higher inflation.

Rates for Friday December 9, 2016: With not much economic news mortgage rates this week rates continue to move sideways, with no change from Friday to Friday for the second week in a row. Day to day, and interday, Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) have been very volatile opening significantly higher (lower rates) or lower (higher rates) from the prior day and then through the day reversing direction to finish about where they started. As a result lenders are a bit skittish on their rate sheets and if/when the MBS prices increase in the future (lower rates) we can expect a long lag time between improved pricing and improved rates. I see little decline in rates in the short term and possibility of a bump should more positive economic news present itself.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.25% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 3.75% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-9-16

Leslie and I have seen a lot of movies the past few months (we try to go out every Tuesday night for date night and often include a movie) and have seen some good ones, and one we both did not like (Allied). This past week we saw Arrival. Leslie was surprised when I suggested we see it as she thought she would need to see with girlfriends since I am not a fan of sci-fi genre, but I figure she sat through Magnificent Seven (very good) and I might like the movie.

It was a fantastic movie and as for sci-fi it is not a Star Wars, Star Trek, Independence Day type with fights in space and lots of special effects. Arrival is more along the lines of Close Encounters as it involves initial contact between aliens and humans. Amy Adams is great and the screenplay is one of the best. Whether you like, love, hate or are ambivalent about sci-fi/alien flics I strongly recommend Arrival as an intelligent, thought provoking and engaging movie.

Have a great week,

Dennis

Weekly Rate & Market Update 12-2-16

Question: What are the new loan limits?

Answer: For the first time since 2006 the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA) which governs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has increased the maximum loan limits for conforming loans and FHA has followed the FHFA’s lead and matched the new loan limits.

For single family residences in high-cost counties (Los Angeles and Orange Counties are high-cost, other counties in California may have different limits) the new loan limits are $424,100 (up from $417,000) for conventional mortgages and $636,150 (up from $625,500) for high-balance mortgages. The new loan limits are effective for all loans that fund on or after January 2, 2017.

When the loan limits increased from $359,650 to $417,000 in 2006 there was no “high-balance” category, loans over the conforming loan limit were generically called “jumbo” or “non-conforming.” In 2008, after the housing and mortgage market melt downs, Congress authorized the establishment of the “high-balance” loan limit for high cost areas to support the housing market and assist homeowners who have non-conforming loans by making conforming loans available for possible refinancing.

With home prices having dropped considerably from the establishment of the high-balance loan category the limit was lowered from $729,750 to $625,500 in 2011 where it has remained until it changes in January.

With median home prices having climbed to pre-Recession prices FHFA has returned to historic loan limit models of adjusting the conforming loan limits to keep up with changes in real estate values, hence the first increase in the loan limit in a decade. The lag between loan limit increases is the longest since before 1980, the last time there was no change in loan limits was from 1993 to 1996 when the loan limit was at $203,150.

The increase in loan limits is another sign that the housing markets are healthy across the United States, and have been critical in supporting economic growth for the past several years.

[email protected]

Remember, with Dennis it’s not just a mortgage, it’s your complete financial picture.

A lot of significant data this week, including reports on the overall economy, wages, spending, employment and inflation—all of which impact interest rates. We’ll run through the pertinent reports in chronological order. Tuesday the second estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP was released with a 0.3% upward revision from the first estimate and showing 3.2% annualized growth in the economy from July 1st to September 30th. The increased revision was driven by stronger personal consumption. This news is positive for the economy and negative for lower mortgage rates.

Income up, spending down, prices up. That is the synopsis of the Bureau of Economic Analysis report on personal income and outlays for October. Personal income increased 0.6% for the month, up from 0.3% in September, while personal spending cooled down increasing 0.3% in October after 0.7% in September. Prices were almost unchanged for the month at 0.1% and are up 1.4% year over year, below the Fed’s inflation target. The news is mixed for mortgage rates.

Today the Labor Department released employment data for October. The economy created 178,000 jobs in the month, in line with expectations, however September payroll gains were revised downward from 161,000 to 142,000 jobs created. The headline for tomorrow’s newspapers is that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.9% to 4.6%, the lowest number since August 2007 right before the recession. The drop in the unemployment rate is not good news as it was not a result of more hiring but rather a dip in the participation rate and fewer people looking for work (remember the unemployment rate is not how many people are out of work but is how many people are actively looking for a job, if people give up looking for work the unemployment rate drops), the labor participation rate has dropped to 62.7% (percentage of eligible workforce that is working). Another bit of negative news is a drop of 0.1% in average hourly wages. Overall the report is negative for the economy and positive for mortgage rates.

Rates for Friday December 2, 2016: Good news for rates…they didn’t go up this week! For the first time in three weeks rates don’t go up, they didn’t drop from last Friday but we’ll take the no change after the run we went through. The combination of the election, Fed rate increase and several positive economic signs has resulted in the fastest increase in rates I can remember, going up 0.625% in three weeks. Will we see rates flatten out? Probably (?). Will we see rates settle back down? I feel we should, but then I wrote before the election that if Donald Trump won we should see rates fall.

FIXED RATE MORTGAGES AT COST OF 1.25 POINTS
30 year conforming 4.00% Flat
30 year high-balance conforming 4.125% Flat
30 year FHA 3.25% Flat
30 year FHA high-balance 3.75% Flat

Please note that these are base rates and adjustments may be added for condominiums, refinances, credit scores, loan to value, no impound account and period rate is locked. Rates are based on 20% down (3.5% for FHA) with 740 FICO score for purchase mortgages.

12-2-16

The lights and decorations are coming out of the attics and garages, which always makes me think of the great movie, Christmas Vacation, when Chevy Chase decorates his home with “250 strands of lights, one hundred individual lights per strand for a grandddd total of 25,000 imported twinkle lights!” And of course they don’t work when he has the grand plugging in ceremony. One of the many joys of this time of year are all the great Christmas movies through the years. Be careful on those ladders.

Have a great week,

Dennis